Monmouth handle & attendance - Page 4

Indian Charlie · #61 07-05-2010, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

YET, it's like you're in the know and you compare me to an idiot I could out-handicap in my dreams. Which pretty much captures the ethos of what happens here (and elsewhere).

Isn't that where you do your best cappin?

Oh, that's right, damnit, you don't read my posts

philcski · #62 07-05-2010, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm now officially confused....are you saying there was $14K in the WPS? If that's the case, of course over 50% ( could be 70 even ) is in the win pool. In that case I misunderstood.

As for you refusing to think through an example on paper and a real time example, which is what I am talking about, I don't know how to help you any further. You are stuck on adamantly defending a position that isn't being discussed. This pool is NOT efficient....that is the point. And, yes, you can still bet tens and 20s and not significantly change that, but good luck making money with that strategy. The only way you can make real money, yes...even over time, is if there is enough money in the pool to profit acceptably over time. For that to happen, there will be more sophisticated money in the pool, which forgetting about making your " job " harder, will significantly lower the imaginary ROI we are discussing.

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

I do think that you are giving the general public more credit than they deserve by saying because a pool is larger it means the money is smarter. I think it is to some extent- but certainly not all the time or to the magnitude that you seem to credit them. Drugs' example of Mine that Bird yesterday at 5/2 against a salty 14 horse field on a surface he's not bred for, hadn't run on, and hadn't even expected to be in off a long layoff. Or I Want Revenge at 6/5 off a serious injury and lengthy layoff against a good group in the Suburban.

cmorioles · #63 07-05-2010, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

the_fat_man · #64 07-05-2010, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Know your roll chubby ... and just like with everyone else, your roll is to bask in the glory of the presence of the greatest.

"roll"? Doubtful this is meant as a pun on your part. Just another example or your illiteracy. Remember a couple of years ago when you had that site with SAR picks and I sent you an email with a few 'spelling' corrections? Now, that was/would've been embarrassing huh? (Well, not exactly as embarrassing as going 0 for the first couple of weeks, with very limited plays, which you actually did.

)

I realize that if you had to admit that I'm your equal as a handicapper, you'd probably never make it out of the house -- this, even, after your ass kissers worked on you for a month.

Which means that you probably haven't had the nerve to look at my two $41 dollar bombs last week and my $66 dollar bomb late May.

Right about now I figure you're dialing for some fast food as you reach for your meds.

Indian Charlie · #65 07-05-2010, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

"roll"? Doubtful this is meant as a pun on your part. Just another example or your illiteracy. Remember a couple of years ago when you had that site with SAR picks and I sent you an email with a few 'spelling' corrections? Now, that was/would've been embarrassing huh? (Well, not exactly as embarrassing as going 0 for the first couple of weeks, with very limited plays, which you actually did.

)

I realize that if you had to admit that I'm your equal as a handicapper, you'd probably never make it out of the house -- this, even, after your ass kissers worked on you for a month.

Which means that you probably haven't had the nerve to look at my two $41 dollar bombs last week and my $66 dollar bomb late May.

Right about now I figure you're dialing for some fast food as you reach for your meds.

Deluded post of the year.

philcski · #66 07-05-2010, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

So now you're backtracking? CJ, you're better than this. I know that.

No, exotics are not part of the mutuel pool size listing. Again, here's the chart from the last race run at PID. http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8 The WPS ("mutuel") pool was $14,219; EX $10,273; TRI $8,660; SUP $2,402 (all pre-takeout numbers of course.)

Can someone have a +20% over a whole meet on 4-1 shots? Sure. Bet 1,000 races at 4-1 and win 240 of them. Someone can have a +20% ROI on 1/5 shots... if they run the table.

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples... yet even the token $300 total bet on them causes them to go off at 20-1.

#67 07-05-2010, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The Indomitable DrugS · #68 07-05-2010, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.

I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.

Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

The Indomitable DrugS · #69 07-05-2010, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples...

If these horses are breaking from the rail post and have speed ... they aren't entirely hopeless.

One of my favorite races of the meet so far was this one ....

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...00526&raceNo=3

A 66/1 shot winner goes wire-to-wire .. and a 40/1 shot 2nd place finisher is 2nd at every call. They are basically isolated in front of the rest of the field the whole way and no one even threatens them at any point.

MISTERGEE · #70 07-05-2010, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.

I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.

Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

The Indomitable DrugS · #71 07-05-2010, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?

They put them on the website sometimes - and other times they don't. They are always in the paper.

You have to remember - there are like 40 people betting the horses ontrack the average night ... and they have options between my stuff in the paper - or the two TV commentators .. they even had a free tipsheet for a couple years made by one of the on-air guys. He'd pick entirely different horses in the tipsheet than he'd pick on-air .. but he'd say his on-air picks were through handicapping and his tip sheet picks were through his special points system formula .. it was just odd how they NEVER landed on the same top pick.

It's a situation where I could spend 10 seconds a race and handicap a whole card in less than 2 minutes and no one would care. I'd still get paid and I still couldn't do any worse than the track people .. I just have way too much pride and way too much ego to do that.

Sightseek · #72 07-06-2010, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

.

This is pretty close to Iavarone...no wonder the horse is a total loser without an extreme track bias.

The Bid · #73 07-06-2010, 09:11 AM

That horse is nothing like iavarone. He paid his bill once when he won........that makes them different.

The Indomitable DrugS · #74 07-06-2010, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerS

Not for nothing but isnt point of playing to make money? Ill take biases all day long, even if it means doing extra work. Especially if it involves extra work since clearly others wont do the same. If you have spotted a bias and others havent that gives you a tremendous edge and well worth time uncovering.

One of the textbook days was June 17th.

On the 8 race card, 6 horses breaking from post position #1 won - and in the 2 races where post #1 didn't win, it was a wire-to-wire winner in each. Post 1 completed the exacta in one instance, and post 2 completed the exacta in the other instance.

The 6 winners breaking from post #1 paid: $22.40, $19.20, $10.00, $7.20, $7.80 and $6.00

The first two that paid the big prices both won wire-to-wire starting from post 1.

Any bettor who argues biases are a bad thing ... they're crazy as far as I'm concerned.

The Indomitable DrugS · #75 07-06-2010, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rare Bog

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0waN...eature=related

Nice clip. Is Indian Charlie supposed to be the guy next to me?

VOL JACK · #76 07-06-2010, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If these horses are breaking from the rail post and have speed ... they aren't entirely hopeless.

One of my favorite races of the meet so far was this one ....

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...00526&raceNo=3

A 66/1 shot winner goes wire-to-wire .. and a 40/1 shot 2nd place finisher is 2nd at every call. They are basically isolated in front of the rest of the field the whole way and no one even threatens them at any point.

A piece of $hi+ without balls named Iavarone.
Fits well.