Dave "Bombs Away" Liftin

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When I put the Best Value horse on top, I don't use the Most Likely tag at all. I'm saying the top choice is both the best value and most likely.

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf, I understand that but there might be a better method.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't know.. Does anyone have to be made aware that one of 2-3 MTO's, and typically 2-1 or 5-2 on the line, is the choice if the race comes off?

If the MTO is the best betting option - why not?

I remember doing research - and over an 8 year stretch at Saratoga (all the charts I had to work with at the time) the post time favorite in races taken off of the turf had an ungodly high win percentage and a profitable ROI.

If I had to speculate on Litfin's motives for doing that - I'm sure it's because he wants the winner credited to him.

If it's a 9 race card with 4 turf races - and he's 0-for-5 in the dirt races - he's stairing an 0-for-9 duck in the face with 4 turf horses who are probably poorly meant for the dirt.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf.

I know.

Don't they have those silly public handicapper contests at Saratoga to see who can select the most top pick winners?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I know.

Don't they have those silly public handicapper contests at Saratoga to see who can select the most top pick winners?

Seth Merrow from Equidaily compiles the numbers mid-meet and at the end. Very few public handicappers report ROI, which is a much more important statistic to me than a win %.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Seth Merrow from Equidaily compiles the numbers mid-meet and at the end. Very few public handicappers report ROI, which is a much more important statistic to me than a win %.

I agree 100% about ROI - but there are obvious reasons why public handicappers don't report them.

I did not have a profitable one the 1st PID meet - and I bemoaned (to myself, because no one else cares) stuff like 'you can't see the odds 36 hours ahead of time - and position yourself on the best option in relation to post time odds' - 'you can't adjust to scratches that change the complexion of pace dynamics' etc etc.

My ROI has been profitable here every year since - and the only few guys who actually care are the Tate brothers (black guys who dress like pimps and only bet $10-to-$20 a race) the janitor (great guy) my father (not so great guy) and the little Italian cook who only bets my numbers. Take a poll - most of the people probably think Katie is way sharper than me - and she has finally figured out the difference between the abbreviations for Delta Downs and Delaware Park after only 3 years.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

After a bad day - my favorite is when I get accused of "keeping the good ones for myself" or other similar variants - from people who appear to be atleast half serious.

Pretty crazy some of the stuff that new racing fans/drunken men who escape their wives can think up.

amen. Liftin is a good handicapper and an even better guy.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

whatever.

I just don't need a friggin write up in the DRF about how the track handicapper for NYRA tracks thinks a 2/5 shot is gonna win.

ignore it if it bothers you so darn much. thats not hard to do.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

I get your point and it's very true about Most Likely = Best Value in various circumstances. If I had the time to write more elaborate analysis/comments the way I used to, I'd love to. I try to communicate as much as possible with the simple monikers, and believe those that have followed my opinion understand what I'm implying with the placement of the tabs. I generally make 'OTT' selections on a separate line and then move them into the body copy when revising the write-up post-SCR. But you're right about the wording and individual ideas of what they mean to people reading or writing them.

[Thunder Gulch]

Just my opinion, but Litfin is the best of the group from DRF. I've seen him make selections based on value countless times.

[Linny]

Litfin is very good. Fact is that Bold Warrior was the most likely winner of the day but the term " best bet" is the phrase used.

As for public handicappers and ROI, I understand why it's generally not published. First, selections are usually made 36 hours in advance with condiditons/scratches a mystery and the fact that no handicapper actually plays every race. Every public handicapper I've met has at some point HAD to make selections on races that they wouldn't bet for anything because they just can't get a good grip on them.

Picking alot of winners gets attention. Most people using the information from a public 'capper are not just blindly betting their top choice to win. They are confirming their choices or maybe mixing their "top choice" with their favorite public 'cappers' choices in EX/TRI/SUP or multi race play. If they choose to blend their picks with Litfin's and walk out with plenty more than they walked in with, to them Litfin is great even if he didn't have a "top choice" winner all day.

[Calzone Lord]

I think I had a top-pick winner today who was rescued from a slaughter house since it last ran.

Horse probably would have paid $90.00 to win if the race was on a Tuesday or Wed and all that TVG viewer money was in the pools:









* Two plus year layoff (like 27 month layoff to be exact)

* Three years since its had a top four finish

* Only two published workouts

Obviously it goes wire-to-wire against paceless slugs and wins by 7 lengths in-hand.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110702&RN=3

My ROI is pretty good with Prime Timber offspring this meet. He also sired the $76 winner.

[pweizer]

It should be noted that Litfin did not select 1-5 morning line Hilda's Passion as his best bet today. Thus, it can't be only most likely winner as the criteria.

Paul

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It should be noted that Litfin did not select 1-5 morning line Hilda's Passion as his best bet today. Thus, it can't be only most likely winner as the criteria.

Paul

He obviously knew that HP would not even hit the board. Liftin for President.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think I had a top-pick winner today who was rescued from a slaughter house since it last ran.

Horse probably would have paid $90.00 to win if the race was on a Tuesday or Wed and all that TVG viewer money was in the pools:



* Two plus year layoff (like 27 month layoff to be exact)

* Three years since its had a top four finish

* Only two published workouts

Obviously it goes wire-to-wire against paceless slugs and wins by 7 lengths in-hand.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110702&RN=3

My ROI is pretty good with Prime Timber offspring this meet. He also sired the $76 winner.

Yeah, but you missed the exacta and trifecta!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah, but you missed the exacta and trifecta!

Yeah, Phil?

$65 winner tonight - and caught the exacta cold - but photo'd out of the tri.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110707&RN=3


The TVG money was in the pools tonight - 25K in the win pool. Over 30K in the exacta pool. Almost 25K in the tri pool.

My fans were going wild - all six of them.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah, Phil?

$65 winner tonight - and caught the exacta cold - but photo'd out of the tri.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110707&RN=3


The TVG money was in the pools tonight - 25K in the win pool. Over 30K in the exacta pool. Almost 25K in the tri pool.

My fans were going wild - all six of them.

Wow, nice! I'm just busting your balls. Any time you can get a $30+ winner on top it's going to be a good day. Cold $1k tris only exist in fantasyland. I think I had one... once.

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

I figured it had something to do with the trainer's strong ROI on synth (and PID, I'm assuming virtually all of his synth starters were at PID anyways.) But your logic on the OBS sale price (i.e. strong synth work) is a great key ... never really thought about that but it makes a lot of sense for Keeneland as well. And as you said, the race totally sucked otherwise so worth a shot at a bomb.

Great work.

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks.

The inside draw was also very key in this instance. It's hard to appreciate that part of it unless you handicap this track daily.

If I don't believe a cutie pie horse can race on the rail for a large portion of the race - I won't get cute and pick him on top.

The common thing with a lot of my huge bomb winners here - they either have post position 1 or 2 if they don't figure to get to the lead - or they figure as the inside most speed in the race. The only real exception this meet has been with a Forest Danger first-time starter who just happened to take no money for whatever reason.

Even in this instance - if the projection horse has post 7 instead of post 2 - I probably take the 4/5 favorite on top.