Dave "Bombs Away" Liftin

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah, Phil?

$65 winner tonight - and caught the exacta cold - but photo'd out of the tri.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110707&RN=3


The TVG money was in the pools tonight - 25K in the win pool. Over 30K in the exacta pool. Almost 25K in the tri pool.

My fans were going wild - all six of them.

Wow, nice! I'm just busting your balls. Any time you can get a $30+ winner on top it's going to be a good day. Cold $1k tris only exist in fantasyland. I think I had one... once.

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

I figured it had something to do with the trainer's strong ROI on synth (and PID, I'm assuming virtually all of his synth starters were at PID anyways.) But your logic on the OBS sale price (i.e. strong synth work) is a great key ... never really thought about that but it makes a lot of sense for Keeneland as well. And as you said, the race totally sucked otherwise so worth a shot at a bomb.

Great work.

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks.

The inside draw was also very key in this instance. It's hard to appreciate that part of it unless you handicap this track daily.

If I don't believe a cutie pie horse can race on the rail for a large portion of the race - I won't get cute and pick him on top.

The common thing with a lot of my huge bomb winners here - they either have post position 1 or 2 if they don't figure to get to the lead - or they figure as the inside most speed in the race. The only real exception this meet has been with a Forest Danger first-time starter who just happened to take no money for whatever reason.

Even in this instance - if the projection horse has post 7 instead of post 2 - I probably take the 4/5 favorite on top.

[VOL JACK]

He hit the early Pick 4 today "cold" with his top choice.
Pretty impressive!

$2 pick 4 = $865