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#21
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Look at Fat Man's chart and you can see what the winning move was vis-a-vis the earlier moves that were made. Looking at it from a race flow perspective, which is a crucial part of trip handicapping, it is quite clear that this race was set up for Summer Bird. All he had to be able to do was finish and considering how much ground he had saved while galloping on the rail, he was packing quite a wallop in the stretch. NT |
#22
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Last edited by CSC : 06-09-2009 at 04:00 PM. |
#23
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#24
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I also don't really buy into the argument about how Summer Bird made up ground on the worst part of the track. The race that really screamed bias on Saturday was the Acorn but that result, in my opinion, had more to do with GGG getting a clear lead in a race that lacked any good horses. The favorite was a perfect trip winner in each of her graded stakes efforts and was returning from an unnecessarily long and injury-induced layoff. To sum it up, do I think the best horse at 12 furlongs, a distance beyond the scope of the 2-3 finishers, won the race? Yes. NT |
#25
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![]() Is Summer Bird the new Jazil?
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#26
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#27
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#28
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#29
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#30
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#31
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yes, basically I was asking if people thought he'd be a one hit wonder at 12 furlongs like our favorite horse, Jazil.
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#32
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![]() I like Summer Bird. I actually think he will be tough in the 9 and 10 furlong races. I don't know that he is super talented but he could do really well in this division simply by getting the distance and grinding home in the stretch. If Quality Road or Rachel don't partake in a race, stamina could be enough many times...
I also think Summer Bird was best in the Belmont. However that could easily be an optical illusion as several have argued that Mine That Bird or even Dunkirk had rough trips as far as the flow of the race. Nice youtube replay - I like the way Summer Bird looks from 200 - 100 yards out. Of course the flow of the race helps greatly here as well. I think it is a lot safer to say Mine That Bird or Summer Bird. SB didn't have to change a thing, and MTB simply had to wait longer to move... With Dunkirk it really gets hypothetical... we are asking for a whole different approach - patience from the gate, maybe getting shuffled back a little inside traffic, settling back off the pace with Summer Bird and Chocolate Candy and last-moving with Summer Bird. - Who knows if all that is even possible? And then we have a fracture as well to complicate things... ![]() |
#33
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#34
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![]() I would say Mine That Bird ran better than Dunkirk. Having a much wider trip and all. Here are the quarter splits I came up with in the race for the top 3....
I'm sure they're off, but not too much. Summer Bird: 24.18 23.72 50.98 (second half mile) 23.46 25.20 Dunkirk: 23.41 23.72 25.30 25.43 24.16 26.06 Mine That Bird: 25.28 23.38 50.13 (second half mile) 22.87 26.39 I guess the argument is...was Dunkirk's 23.41 first quarter more taxing than Mine That Bird running the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th quarters significantly faster than Dunkirk. Plus he took a much wider path the whole way. I don't think it's much of an argument.
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The Main Course...the chosen or frozen entree?! |
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#36
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I'm with you on this one Coach. Dunkirk has gotten incredible media support, benefitted from more excuses for failure to finish and still is getting the benefit of the doubt for Silver medal performances. Quality Road stole his heart that day in the Florida Derby and he has yet to respond by winning a subsequent race. The bias written about in DRF may explain Dunkirk's second wind and/or MTB's lack of a sustained effort going wide in the 4 path Saturday. |
#37
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#38
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Last edited by hockey2315 : 06-10-2009 at 10:46 PM. |