forget Summer Bird for a minute. Who Was Better Dunkirk or Mine That Bird?
 

Dunkirk had a nice inside trip up front, while going wayyy too fast.

Mine That Bird had a tremendous early set up off the fassst pace, but then had a stupendous timing of his run allowing him to move way too early.


the actual outcome was a photo finish, so it is all about the trip


which handicappers were right?
Who ran the better race?? It isn't as straight forward as it seems. I think it is actually very close.

I'll say Dunkirk.

At least Mine That Bird got a realistic chance to even make a move, staying off that pace early.

I think if they both had good set ups off the pace* and both had to make a well timed move, Dunkirk beats him easily while Mine That Bird flattens out.
*John Velazquez probably is a horrible choice for that hypothetical "fair race".

Dunkirk had a great trip, yes he had to run hard on the lead but I think making the run MTB, wide as well, was a better run.

Mine That Bird.

I don't think the pace was as demanding as the fractions indicated. Charitable Man continued on okay while four lengths back after a quarter and two and half lengths back after a half. Even Summer Bird was fairly close up through the opening half.

The track was playing fast all day. Baffert's filly pulled a wire job while going 6f in 1:09 in the mile Acorn, and the fractions in that race weren't much slower to the ones in the Woody Stephens.

You are right it is a close call. Dunkirk was put in an unfamiliar pace spot and didn't try to run off, so he gets points for that. If Dunkirk hadn't had to fight with MTB with a quarter left to run, he might have been able to hold off the winner.

MTB was the best yesterday IF calvin doesn't move him to early.

Dunkirk was impressive and certainly moved forward BUT did the mile and half ruin him for the rest of the summer?

this and only this race, Dunkrik. Otherwise, MTB no qeustion.

Dunkirk

I think MTB was too ranked...Travers would be fun.

Since we are doing hypotheticals, what if MTB skipped Preakness & did not move prematulrey.. then what? Dunkrik loses by 5 lenghts?

I think this type of looking at the pace by "where they finished" is tricky in a race like this.

I'm not saying it is definitely wrong to do (and you can see I didn't include quote some of the other supporting strong arguments about how the track was playing.)

the problem I have is that one way of looking at the race is that most of the best horses were up front. Them being successful is still very possible whether they all went too fast or not.-The only really good horse far enough off the pace was Mine That Bird, and he had a problem with moving too early.

Dunkirk's fractions(after we adjust for how fast the track was) were borderline between too fast and fine. That is what makes it difficult to call. If they had been a lot faster it would be obvious and the horses up front would really be paying a price late.

in that race MTB, but id' prefer to own Dunkirk

I was anti-Dunkirk until yesterday. That colt showed some moxie.

Dunkirk.


The Florida Derby in my opinion was still the most impressive prep going into the Derby - it would have been very interesting had Dunkirk taken control out of the gate like he did yesterday.

Dunkirk was better because he was 2nd. Considering the hype he has recieved the past few months he is nothing more than an expensive turd sandwich.

You have raised a very valid point. As a last resort, we can always look to what Johnny V had to say after the race. He may not have known the fractions, but he probably had a good idea about how Dunkirk was moving early. This is what JV said: "I couldn't believe he was on the lead early. There was no pace."

What can we make of these comments?

Unless there was an airport style "moving walkway" under the track it isn't really possible for a paceless race to go 23.41 for the first quarter of a 12 furlong race. I don't know what JV could have possibly been expecting for a 12 furlong race with the 2 fastest runners on form being Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Both of those runners have only route speed - they aren't sprinters...

Was JV that clueless to reality? Was he making excuses for breaking a stretch runner too keenly in a 12 furlong race with little expected pace? Was he intimidated with having an inside post and felt that he had to use some horse from the gate to avoid feeling the squeeze early??
Who knows.

Velazquez is pretty much a negative in any situation now except for dominant outside speed.

Uhm, perhaps the track was insanely fast? While I tend to think jockeys are retards and often make things up as they speak, that's both CB and JRV who said the pace was very slow.

Also, watching the race, Dunkirk did not look like a horse that was going 47.

Dunkirk had the best trip in the Belmont, followed by MTB and then SB. I know what has been said and written about it, but that's the way I saw it.

Of the top 3 finishers that is.

Dunkirk set a fast pace and beat MTB to the wire, even after MTB rushed up on him off the turn....easily Dunkirk.