Dunkirk - Page 2

Linny · #21 03-25-2009, 09:44 AM

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.

The Indomitable DrugS · #22 03-25-2009, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

Just as Bishop Court Hill was used to more make things harder for Lava Man than it was to help out Flower Alley - who also wasn't a closer.

Same with Lukas running Camanche Trail as a rabbit more to hurt Holy Bull than help a stalker like Tabasco Cat.

The rabbit flatters setup closers like Giacomo, Borrego, and Concern ... and can hurt the stalking types almost as much as the seemingly need-the-lead speed horses.

parsixfarms · #23 03-25-2009, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

I agree that Bandini (also owned by Tabor but with Pletcher instead of Biancone) was never a one-run closer. However, to my way of thinking, given the pace that developed, Bandini was nearer the pace in the Derby (a race that eventually fell apart) than I would have expected with the tactics being employed by Spanish Chestnut.

Travis Stone · #24 03-25-2009, 10:41 AM

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

robfla · #25 03-25-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

easily Dunkirk

robfla · #26 03-25-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out?

I think its a win and you're in for Dunkirk. ( Unless they go to the BG of course )Not enough earnings if not first. Isn't 2nd place only 150k in graded earnings?

ateamstupid · #27 03-25-2009, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

easily Dunkirk

Really? Easily? If Dunkirk is favored, I think he'll be a slight favorite.

Travis Stone · #28 03-25-2009, 11:32 AM

I think one is 9/5 and other is 8/5. I think they'd be lower if Theregoesjojo was not in the field, as he'll take a little bit of $ himself.

randallscott35 · #29 03-25-2009, 11:34 AM

Dunkirk even money or less.

Travis Stone · #30 03-25-2009, 11:41 AM

My thoughts above would mean the remaining horses in the race account for 12% of the total win pool. That might be too high, but without seeing entries, I thought it was a fair assessment.

blackthroatedwind · #31 03-25-2009, 11:42 AM

Being that Dunkirk was favored in the future pool, at least of members of the field, he will probably be favored.

How he was favored in that pool is, however, beyond me. That'll be a good trivia question/answer to laugh about in the future.

johnny pinwheel · #32 03-26-2009, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Being that Dunkirk was favored in the future pool, at least of members of the field, he will probably be favored.

How he was favored in that pool is, however, beyond me. That'll be a good trivia question/answer to laugh about in the future.

forget about the future. i'm laughing now, i'll be laughing even more if he does not win this week. the horse has zero graded earnings and is "iffy" to even be in the gate derby day , but hes a future pool fav. who bets these things? i've tried it a couple times but i would not bet anything under 20 to 1 if i do bet. the first pool had a couple of good propects, but after that the odds are kind of ridiculous. yeah' i'll bet dunkirk at like 7 to 1, when he might not even get in rather than derby day when he'll probably be 3 to 1 or more anyway and you know hes running. i don't know maybe he'll win both and make me look stupid but i kind of doubt it. saturday will be intresting because if hes not first it probably won't matter if the future pool had him at a million to 1. lol

Antitrust32 · #33 03-27-2009, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-withers-next

Nice to see some people learn!

parsixfarms · #34 03-27-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-withers-next

Nice to see some people learn!

How much you want to bet that, if he wins the Withers, he runs in the Preakness? Then we'll see how much they learned.

Antitrust32 · #35 03-27-2009, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

How much you want to bet that, if he wins the Withers, he runs in the Preakness? Then we'll see how much they learned.

true that

Linny · #36 03-27-2009, 11:58 AM

If he wins the Withers, depending on what happens in the Derby, the Preakness might be a good spot. Remember, alot of the "better" Derby colt that didn't win the Derby don't come back for the Preakness.

It's a smart move. I'm not sure this colt want's 9f, much less 10f in G1 company. I give them credit for not pressing to get to the Derby. If I had a colt like this I'd be looking at races like the $800k ungraded race at Sunland this weekend and others like it. While people are beating their horses up in a futile attempt at making graded earnings, I'd ship all over the place and run for huge purses while avaiding the "best" of the crop.

Travis Stone · #37 03-27-2009, 12:11 PM

I'm not sure the 9.5f Preakness is the best option for this guy either. They're making a smart move, and hopefully the horse blossoms throughout the year with the conservative approach.

randallscott35 · #38 03-28-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dunkirk even money or less.

I thought he ran really well. Shame he may not make the Derby.

dpkovalesky · #39 03-28-2009, 04:56 PM

yeah..pletcher didn't seem too pleased with the track conditions

randallscott35 · #40 03-28-2009, 04:58 PM

Look, he got beat. The track is 2001 CD Derby which is sad but thems the brakes.