Beyer: Espinoza's ride could have cost Chrome Crown

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Clement told a friend of mine that he liked his horses chances alot in the Belmont, but let's face it, that race he ran would not have touched CC in either the Derby or Preakness.

Nobody ever said that Tonalist would have won the Derby or Preakness. The question was whether he would have a good chance to beat CC running 1 1/2 miles when it will be CC's third race in 5 weeks. That was the only thing that mattered. When I'm handicapping the Belmont, it is irrelevant to me how a horse would do running 1 1/4 miles against CC when both horses are fresh. The only thing that mattered to me when handicapping the Belmont was who will win going 1 1/2 miles when it is CC's third race in 5 weeks.

I can't tell you whether the grabbed quarter made a difference. It may have. There is no way to know for sure. That's not the point. The point was that nobody ever said Tonalist is better than CC. The only question was whether CC might be vulnerable under the specific circumstances (the distance plus the short rest) that he would be facing in the Belmont. I can't tell you for a 100% fact that those things made the difference. But I can tell you that the vast majority of the time that those factors will make a huge difference. If you expect a horse that wins the Derby and Preakness to run the same way in the Belmont, you will be in for a big disappointment the vast majority of times.