12 Reasons why CC can't win Triple Crown

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

Actually, coin flipping isn't a 50/50 for heads/tails thing like everyone thinks.

Close enough though.

[LuckyJoyce]

Ya never know 'til ya know. Actually Big Brown wasn't gonna win because he had a hurt hoof and missed a workout and .... anymore I think staying healthy is a good 75% of the battle. So far Chromey looks good. I think about the slow fractions in the Derby and how Victor eased CC up the last bit and crossed the wire slowing him down already... people like to sneer at the Beyer figure there, but another way of looking at it is that they were saving the horse, leaving some in the tank. Preakness fractions were legit. Belmont fractions should be more like the Derby, so the question is... will he have enough left in the tank to get the whole mile and a half? I think he just may.

And let's not forget Penny Chenery "lost" the coin toss and got the "lesser bred" horse, Secretariat.

Finally, someone posted this yesterday on another site: "Well, I just read the 'Big Heart' gene article which of course accounted for Secretariat's greatness, aside from God's blessings. And, the four big heart stallion lines existing today run through War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and Princiquillo. So, I counted up Ca. Chrome's pedigree and this is what I got: Princiquillo 8 crosses, Blue Larkspur 3 crosses, War Admiral 7 crosses, Mahmoud 6 crosses. Maybe now we can put to rest the statements that Chrome can not get a mile and a half......and, perhaps his breeders knew what they were doing."

So I'm rooting for California Chrome. Then again, I'm a California girl.