12 Reasons why CC can't win Triple Crown

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by joeydb

So, since there were 12 attempts in the last 36 years that didn't work out, it's impossible for California Chrome to win the Triple Crown?

Talk about a non sequitur - I don't see the logic in making such a statement.

Your rationale is also not specific to California Chrome at all. Presumably this would apply to any and all attempts in the future that may come up. And that doesn't sync with the fact that it has been done many times before.

I don't know whether Chrome will win or not - of course I am rooting for him. But citing other failed attempts and not citing specifics about California Chrome makes no sense to me.

I think he was not being overly serious, and was perhaps waxing nostalgic.

Then again, some of the failures in logic I've seen regarding horses like Zenyatta, ya just never know.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think he was not being overly serious, and was perhaps waxing nostalgic.

Then again, some of the failures in logic I've seen regarding horses like Zenyatta, ya just never know.

LOL..........correct you hit the nail on the head, some people are just too serious, just my nostalgic opinon..........

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

LOL..........correct you hit the nail on the head, some people are just too serious, just my nostalgic opinon..........

Sorry - inflection, intonations and any other style beyond the printed page is sometimes elusive when dealing solely with email or text posts.

Should not have taken it seriously...

[Danzig]

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

Actually, coin flipping isn't a 50/50 for heads/tails thing like everyone thinks.

Close enough though.

[LuckyJoyce]

Ya never know 'til ya know. Actually Big Brown wasn't gonna win because he had a hurt hoof and missed a workout and .... anymore I think staying healthy is a good 75% of the battle. So far Chromey looks good. I think about the slow fractions in the Derby and how Victor eased CC up the last bit and crossed the wire slowing him down already... people like to sneer at the Beyer figure there, but another way of looking at it is that they were saving the horse, leaving some in the tank. Preakness fractions were legit. Belmont fractions should be more like the Derby, so the question is... will he have enough left in the tank to get the whole mile and a half? I think he just may.

And let's not forget Penny Chenery "lost" the coin toss and got the "lesser bred" horse, Secretariat.

Finally, someone posted this yesterday on another site: "Well, I just read the 'Big Heart' gene article which of course accounted for Secretariat's greatness, aside from God's blessings. And, the four big heart stallion lines existing today run through War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and Princiquillo. So, I counted up Ca. Chrome's pedigree and this is what I got: Princiquillo 8 crosses, Blue Larkspur 3 crosses, War Admiral 7 crosses, Mahmoud 6 crosses. Maybe now we can put to rest the statements that Chrome can not get a mile and a half......and, perhaps his breeders knew what they were doing."

So I'm rooting for California Chrome. Then again, I'm a California girl.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

DITTO