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  #38  
Old 05-21-2014, 02:36 PM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830 View Post
This, plus remember that the more money that gets bet into it, the more they get in takeout. If everybody (say 100,000 players just for example,) thought they could hit it with a $16 ticket, that's $1.6 million in handle. If every one of those players plays a $144 ticket because it's more challenging and they need to spread more, then they handle (and take 20% of) over $12 million. And when you consider it will likely be the largest pool of the year that doesn't involve a triple crown race, and a secondary track like GP in the summer only gets one shot at it, they certainly want to make it as tough as possible to build that day's pool.
While recognizing that tracks can often have an incentive to make a pic-6 sequence difficult to encourage carryovers (which importantly is NOT the case here given the mandatory payout), I am not of the belief that making a pic-6 as hard as possible is a way to increase handle on the wager. To the contrary, for a player with a limited bankroll, if the sequence is too difficult, to the point that where he or she concludes that a typical play offers no realistic chance to hit the bet, then they player simply opts out of the wager. That is why the $.50 pic 4s and 5s have become far more popular with the average player than the $2.00 pic-6. That said, the $.20 increment on this wager does give the small player the opportunity for more coverage, so opting out is less likely (but it does not mean he or she bets more).
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