Offshore Belmont Odds and props

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

regardless of who is facing him, he will be 1:2 or less - probably 1:5

Originally Posted by dellinger63

I would have 'guessed' even money or better

I think the odds will most likely be somewhere in between those two predictions. Here's a list of the last 11 "tries", and their closing odds in the Belmont:

1979 Spectacular Bid .30 3rd
1981 Pleasant Colony .80 3rd
1987 Alysheba .80 4th
1989 Sunday Silence .90 2nd
1997 Silver Charm 1.05 2nd
1998 Real Quiet .80 2nd
1999 Charismatic 1.60 3rd
2002 War Emblem 1.25 8th
2003 Funny Cide 1.00 3rd
2004 Smarty Jones .35 2nd
2008 Big Brown .30 DNF

Only Funny Cide, War Emblem and Charismatic closed at of 1:1 or greater.

Funny Cide had Empire Maker to deal with, and Empire Maker took a lot of the betting money. As a need-the-lead front runner, War Emblem was particularly suspect at a mile-and-a-half, and Charismatic always had his doubters.

Only Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown closed at 1:2 or less.

California Chrome has not dominated like the Bid, Smarty Jones and Big Brown did.

--Dunbar