Offshore Belmont Odds and props

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by JJP

He's 3-2 right now at Bookmaker so taking +104 on Cal Chrome is not a good bet. The 12 furlongs just adds a lot of randomness. There's been some forgettable horses who scored at big odds in the Belmont. Could easily happen this year. He will be nowhere near 1-5 or even 3-5.

At Bookmaker, you lose your bet if CC gets hurt between now and the race and doesn't run. At the other place, if the horse doesn't start the bet is cancelled. So I don't know if I would say that Bookmaker is a better bet. Last year you would've gotten burned at Bookmaker if you bet I'll Have Another.

[Dunbar]

As of this afternoon (5/27):

5Dimes:

California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
Sat 6/7 California Chrome wins Belmont +105
5:00PM Field wins Belmont -135

"+105" means odds of 1.05 to 1.
"-135" means you bet 135 to win 100 (payoff is 235)


Bookmaker:

2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (CHROME MUST START)
92001 CALIFORNIA CHROME EV
92002 ANY OTHER RUNNER -125


2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (ALL IN BETTING) -- you lose if your horse doesn't start
92063 CALIFORNIA CHROME +105
92064 WICKED STRONG +725
92065 TONALIST +725
92066 COMMANDING CURVE +805
92067 RIDE ON CURLIN +805
92068 SAMRAAT +2050
92071 KID CRUZ +3050
92072 SOCIAL INCLUSION +4050
92073 COMMISSIONER +4050
92074 MATUSZAK +4050

--Dunbar

[robfla]

As mentioned earlier, I am kind of surprised of the odds where "he must start". I still think the race day odds will be much lower. 3/5 or less.

[cakes44]

Oh he'll be 1/5. Problem is, there's 3-4 horses in there that would be life and death in a 90 BSF maiden race. By the time the race starts, he'll be tough to bet against in the top spot. It will probably be cold exacta time.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Oh he'll be 1/5. Problem is, there's 3-4 horses in there that would be life and death in a 90 BSF maiden race. By the time the race starts, he'll be tough to bet against in the top spot. It will probably be cold exacta time.

He won't be anything close to 1-5 unless we get a lot more defections. Tonalist, Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve, and Right on Curlin will all get play. Those odds that Dunbar posted from Bookmaker should be in the ballpark if those horses run. CC will be around 4-5, Wicked Strong 6-1 or so, Tonalist 7-1 or so, Commanding Curve 8-1 or so, and Ride on Curlin 8-1 or so.

If CC was 1-5, that would mean all those other horses would be around 20-1 apiece. That's not going to happen.

The big offshore books are always in the right ballpark on the odds. If they weren't they would go out of business. They're not going to give you even money on a 1-5 shot.

[ranger5830]

Chrome was only 5-2 in the derby, and 1-2 in the preakness. I haven't looked, but I would have to think it would be highly unusual (if not unprecedented) for a preakness winner to go off at a higher price in the belmont than he did in Baltimore, especially a horse looking for the triple crown. And while I certainly understand that sports books are not in business to lose money, even money seems like excellent value relative to what his off odds will be on the tote.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by robfla

As mentioned earlier, I am kind of surprised of the odds where "he must start". I still think the race day odds will be much lower. 3/5 or less.

Current odds 2:5

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by robfla

Current odds 2:5

I wouldn't make too much of that. It's way too early. There is only $64,000 in the win pool right now. By post time there will probably be around $10 million in there.

Here are the double will pays. Charming Kitten paid $13 to win.

$2 BELMONT GOLD CUP-BELMONT STAKES WILL-PAYS
Charming Kitten (#3) with:
1. Medal Count, $258.50
2. California Chrome, $38
3. Matterhorn, $936
4. Commanding Curve, $150
5. Ride On Curlin, $144.50
6. Matuszak, $697
7. Samraat, $272
8. Commissioner, $368
9. Wicked Strong, $85.50
10. General a Rod, $472
11. Tonalist, $127

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

Current odds 2:5

Take a look at those Double will-pays with Charming Kitten, and tell me Chrome's payoff looks like a horse that will be bet down to 3-5!

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

They must be taking huge action against CC. Right now if you want to bet the field you have to lay -160 and they will give +135 on CC. That is very surprising that they are offering practically 7-5 on CC when the horse is 4-5 at the track.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

As of this afternoon (5/27):

5Dimes:

California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
Sat 6/7 California Chrome wins Belmont +105
5:00PM Field wins Belmont -135

"+105" means odds of 1.05 to 1.
"-135" means you bet 135 to win 100 (payoff is 235)

As of 6/2, the "No" money keeps nudging the win odds higher:

California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
Sat 6/7 101 California Chrome wins Belmont +110
5:00PM 102 Field wins Belmont -140

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the best odds I found just now among 5Dimes, Bookmaker, and TheGreek:

1 MedalCount 16.95 Bookmaker
2 Calif Chrome 1.1 FiveD
3 Matterhorn 40.5 Bookmaker
4 CommandingCurve 10.15 Bookmaker
5 Ride On Curlin 7.45 Bookmaker
6 Matuszak 65.5 Bookmaker
7 Samraat 20 FiveD
8 Commissioner 40.5 Bookmaker
9 Wicked Strong 8.05 Greek
10 General A Rod 32.5 Bookmaker
11 Tonalist 10.15 Bookmaker

That's equivalent to a 7.5% takeout. At FiveD, the bet is refunded if either your horse or CC doesn't start. At Bookmaker, the bet is refunded if CC doesn't start, but it doesn't say what happens if your horse doesn't start. TheGreek doesn't specify that CC has to start.



If betting the Belmont isn't complicated enough, Bookmaker will let you make a bet on both the Belmont and the Epsom Derby:

WHO WILL HAVE THE BETTER RESULT ?
17727 CALIFORNIA CHROME -125
17728 AUSTRALIA EV


AUSTRALIA AND CALIFORNIA CHROMES RESULTS ?
17731 BOTH WIN +325
17732 NEITHER WIN +225
17733 ONLY CALIFORNIA CHROME WINS +225
17734 ONLY AUSTRALIA WINS +325


WHO WILL WIN BY MORE LENGTHS ?
17735 CALIFORNIA CHROME -110
17736 AUSTRALIA -110
(if both horses lose, bet is refunded)

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Considering that CC is 3-5 on the morning line, you would think that the offshore books would be lowering their odds on him, but they're not. He's actually going up in odds at some of the places. He is 6-5 at 5Dimes right now and that is a legitimate 6-5. There is no action if he doesn't run. There are two possibilities of why they have him at 6-5. The first possibility is that they are very confident that he's not going to win. The second possibility is that they're simply not getting much action on him. In addition, I would expect him to be slightly higher odds at a good offshore book because the good books don't mind giving out a line that only gives them a 5-10% edge. They don't need a 16% edge to make a good profit. In most cases they will make plenty of money with a 5-10% take.

I don't think CC will go off at 3-5. I think that morning-line is a little low. I think he will be either 4-5 or even money.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Considering that CC is 3-5 on the morning line, you would think that the offshore books would be lowering their odds on him, but they're not. He's actually going up in odds at some of the places. He is 6-5 at 5Dimes right now and that is a legitimate 6-5. There is no action if he doesn't run. There are two possibilities of why they have him at 6-5. The first possibility is that they are very confident that he's not going to win. The second possibility is that they're simply not getting much action on him. In addition, I would expect him to be slightly higher odds at a good offshore book because the good books don't mind giving out a line that only gives them a 5-10% edge. They don't need a 16% edge to make a good profit. In most cases they will make plenty of money with a 5-10% take.

I don't think CC will go off at 3-5. I think that morning-line is a little low. I think he will be either 4-5 or even money.

Right. The difference in vig only accounts for part of the difference. If you take the figs from "best odds" I posted yesterday, and turn it into a 15% takeout line, it only changes Chrome from 1.1-1 to 1.0-1.

Chrome is currently 1-1 at Bookmaker and TheGreek, and 1.15-1 at 5Dimes. One thing that may inflate 5Dimes' valuation is that they know they will be paying 110% of the win payoff if someone plays Chrome in the site's racebook (as opposed to taking Chrome at a fixed price "future". (they offer the extra 10% as an ongoing promotion.) So if Chrome goes off at 1-1, 5Dimes will be paying those bettors more than 1.1-1 anyway.

I think your "4-5 or even money" is right on target.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

...
I don't think CC will go off at 3-5. I think that morning-line is a little low. I think he will be either 4-5 or even money.

Score one for Rupert.

The win pool was $22,491,474
$9,943,684 was bet on Chrome

Win odds = 0.89994 to 1, but breakage makes it 0.8 to 1, or 4-5.

(if $153 less had been bet on Chrome, it would have been 0.9-1).

--Dunbar

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

At Bookmaker, you lose your bet if CC gets hurt between now and the race and doesn't run. At the other place, if the horse doesn't start the bet is cancelled. So I don't know if I would say that Bookmaker is a better bet. Last year you would've gotten burned at Bookmaker if you bet I'll Have Another.

I saw the Bookmaker Yes/No prop several hours after the Preakness. The "Yes" was -135. They've taken a lot more "No" money than yes on him winning.