Can he do it?

[Calzone Lord]

In a crop hit hard by injuries and setbacks to promising route horses like Shared Belief, New Year's Day, and Honor Code...

California Chrome has certainly been a great thing for racing. Let's pretend he wrenched an ankle after the Santa Anita Derby.

That leaves Commanding Curve as your Kentucky Derby winner:



Instead of wearing a blanket of roses and etched in history as a Kentucky Derby winner, Commanding Curve still has his N1X allowance condition.


Ride On Curlin, a horse who is 0-for-8 lifetime in stakes races, would be a Preakness winner by a lopsided margin:




These two horses are a combined 1-for-15 lifetime in races beyond the distance of 6 furlongs. The lone win coming in a Maiden Special Weight race.


California Chrome hasn't exactly had to beat anywhere near the level of competition that some other horses have, to get to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown.

However, he'll get a very tough test in the Belmont. He's not as well suited to the distance as some of his rivals, and a third race in five weeks, at a third different race track, is a test in it's own right.

He doesn't exactly have an Easy Goer or a Coastal set to oppose him, but he's in for a very challenging test and he'll surely get the best male competition this crop has to offer at the moment...and most of them won't be making their 3rd start in five weeks, at their third different track.