4/5 (SA): Derby, Oaks (G1's), Providencia (G3), Eve. Jewel, Echo Eddie

[Port Conway Lane]

California Chrome may be trying to overcome a trend as rare as Apollo, if not historically then at least numerically in the last 40 years.

I can't recall a derby starter, let alone a derby winner who ran before May 1st of their 2 YO season.

If I was to stab I'd choose a Florida bred, maybe Foolish Pleasure.

[cakes44]

I think Schoolofhardrocks ends up being a nice horse. Tough group to face in here though.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I think Schoolofhardrocks ends up being a nice horse. Tough group to face in here though.

I would have bet him next Saturday in the Blue Grass. He needs turf IMO.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

California Chrome may be trying to overcome a trend as rare as Apollo, if not historically then at least numerically in the last 40 years.

I can't recall a derby starter, let alone a derby winner who ran before May 1st of their 2 YO season.

If I was to stab I'd choose a Florida bred, maybe Foolish Pleasure.

Mission Impazible started really early. He ran in April or May in his 2-year old year.

Edit - he actually ran twice in April, before going on the shelf until January
Of his 3-year old season.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Mission Impazible started really early. He ran in April or May in his 2-year old year.

Edit - he actually ran twice in April, before going on the shelf until January
Of his 3-year old season.

Thanks. I know it's rare, especially nowadays.

[tywizard]

I wish I was clear on the intent of California Chrome and Hoppertunity...If neither trainer gives instructions not to exert too much this becomes a very good betting affair - specifically the P4 sequence. I think both will still run very well but I don't think either trainer would want to fully extend the horse just for the sake of winning. I understand the SA Derby is a race you would like to win regardless but I think the connections of both horses think they have legitimate shots in May....

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I wish I was clear on the intent of California Chrome and Hoppertunity...If neither trainer gives instructions not to exert too much this becomes a very good betting affair - specifically the P4 sequence. I think both will still run very well but I don't think either trainer would want to fully extend the horse just for the sake of winning. I understand the SA Derby is a race you would like to win regardless but I think the connections of both horses think they have legitimate shots in May....

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

I would agree, I dont think they think too much of Hop.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would agree, I dont think they think too much of Hop.

As of right now my 2 Derby horses are him and Candy Boy. I think Hop is going to relish 10f w/ a blistering pace in front of him. He might be up against it a bit tomorrow, but I still prefer those 2 over Chrome, tomorrow and in the Derby.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

So what are you saying? That if California Chrome gets hooked in a stretch duel, Espinoza's instructions would be to ease him out of it and let the other horse win so he doesn't exert himself too much?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

This is worst then the first thing I responded to. I think Motion is actually pretty smart to run his horse at Calder. He will be 1-5 and is a likely 10 length or more winner. I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

California Chrome may be trying to overcome a trend as rare as Apollo, if not historically then at least numerically in the last 40 years.

I can't recall a derby starter, let alone a derby winner who ran before May 1st of their 2 YO season.

If I was to stab I'd choose a Florida bred, maybe Foolish Pleasure.

More Than Ready won his debut on 4-11-99 at Kee, then finished 4th in the 2000 derby. There may be others, and I will edit this post as needed.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

More Than Ready won his debut on 4-11-99 at Kee, then finished 4th in the 2000 derby. There may be others, and I will edit this post as needed.

Thanks.
Round Table ran 3 times before May, Bold Ruler ran twice and Mister Jive once. Indian Creek was tardiest in the field with a September debut.