4/5 (SA): Derby, Oaks (G1's), Providencia (G3), Eve. Jewel, Echo Eddie

[tywizard]

I wish I was clear on the intent of California Chrome and Hoppertunity...If neither trainer gives instructions not to exert too much this becomes a very good betting affair - specifically the P4 sequence. I think both will still run very well but I don't think either trainer would want to fully extend the horse just for the sake of winning. I understand the SA Derby is a race you would like to win regardless but I think the connections of both horses think they have legitimate shots in May....

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I wish I was clear on the intent of California Chrome and Hoppertunity...If neither trainer gives instructions not to exert too much this becomes a very good betting affair - specifically the P4 sequence. I think both will still run very well but I don't think either trainer would want to fully extend the horse just for the sake of winning. I understand the SA Derby is a race you would like to win regardless but I think the connections of both horses think they have legitimate shots in May....

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

I would agree, I dont think they think too much of Hop.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would agree, I dont think they think too much of Hop.

As of right now my 2 Derby horses are him and Candy Boy. I think Hop is going to relish 10f w/ a blistering pace in front of him. He might be up against it a bit tomorrow, but I still prefer those 2 over Chrome, tomorrow and in the Derby.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is silly. Its a million dollar G1. Everyone wants to win.

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

So what are you saying? That if California Chrome gets hooked in a stretch duel, Espinoza's instructions would be to ease him out of it and let the other horse win so he doesn't exert himself too much?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So what are you saying? That if California Chrome gets hooked in a stretch duel, Espinoza's instructions would be to ease him out of it and let the other horse win so he doesn't exert himself too much?

I guess an easier way to say what I mean is - Will California Chrome / Hoppertunity be prepared to peak tomorrow or a month from now?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I guess an easier way to say what I mean is - Will California Chrome / Hoppertunity be prepared to peak tomorrow or a month from now?

That's a fair question. They may very well not be fully cranked. Before it sounded like you were insinuating the jocks would be instructed not to try too hard.

I think it would be more of a concern if they were coming off a layoff and clearly needed a tightener. California Chrome is already in razor sharp form, so I imagine it'd be hard to pull back on the throttle now and then hope to get him back in peak form for the Derby.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Using this logic, G. Motion and the connections of Ring Weekend must be idiots for running in the Calder Derby...It's only a 250K race.

By the way, I noted that it's obviously one of the best races a 3YO could win...But if you had a horse that was clearly in the Derby and had to go ALL OUT to win the SA Derby - would you jeopardize the chance of winning KY Derby?

This is worst then the first thing I responded to. I think Motion is actually pretty smart to run his horse at Calder. He will be 1-5 and is a likely 10 length or more winner. I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

[santana]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is worst then the first thing I responded to. I think Motion is actually pretty smart to run his horse at Calder. He will be 1-5 and is a likely 10 length or more winner. I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

It is a BIG IF,,,but if Social Inclusion romps in the Wood, he is the Derby Favorite....
Good racing on Sat....good luck to all.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is worst then the first thing I responded to. I think Motion is actually pretty smart to run his horse at Calder. He will be 1-5 and is a likely 10 length or more winner. I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

worse than. FFS!

[10 pnt move up]

dirt track looks very inside to me visually, it was a bit chalky but just seems like coming wide and from back aint going to work.

[10 pnt move up]

This betting in the SA Oaks is crazy, Ria Antonia is not that good, can win but even money?

The 1 is a much more likely winner of this race.

[10 pnt move up]

I actually think Ria Antonia is probably the one you want out of that race, had to be much closer to a very slow pace.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

Did he change your mind today?

[Alabama Stakes]

thats a good looking, head held high, chestnut colt. How could anyone not be impressed by that wompin he just gave those guys ? Derby fave for sure at 5/2

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Did he change your mind today?

Im never going to bet him, especially in the Derby vs 19 other horses, but yes he is really good and I was wrong.
I think the 2nd place finisher ran well, and I think in the Derby he will be much further back off a 45-46 half and he will be moving late.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is worst then the first thing I responded to. I think Motion is actually pretty smart to run his horse at Calder. He will be 1-5 and is a likely 10 length or more winner. I think the whole California Chrome party comes to an end tomorrow. I hear people saying he is a likely Derby favorite, I dont see it at all.

You are un-fuc1<ing-canny

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You are un-fuc1<ing-canny

Lol I made $6500 on 3 bets today, thanks pal.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Of course you did. Congrats, sport.