Keeneland returning to dirt

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

True. His KEE picks in the Selections forum are totally legendary.

Yes, I post them under my other SN- PointGiven1985 ;p

I rarely post picks here, because a lot of times I go to the track on short notice and can't pre-cap. Would you guys give them any credibility anyway lol?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Yes, I post them under my other SN- PointGiven1985 ;p

I rarely post picks here, because a lot of times I go to the track on short notice and can't pre-cap. Would you guys give them any credibility anyway lol?

I have respect for anyone who posts their plays publicly. And it would be a chance to back up all your talk about how awesome you do at Keeneland.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I have respect for anyone who posts their plays publicly. And it would be a chance to back up all your talk about how awesome you do at Keeneland.

exactly. people won't give you a hard time, pmayjr, if you post your picks...and they sure won't if you post winners!

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I have respect for anyone who posts their plays publicly. And it would be a chance to back up all your talk about how awesome you do at Keeneland.

ha! I don't think I ever said I was the greatest at Keeneland or anywhere. I have my good days and my shitty ones. I did post Dubai in-depth analysis last weekend, and I think I cashed 2 tickets? So I don't claim to be anything close to awesome, but I do have proven angles that work time and time again in regard to synth surfaces (or horses shipping to dirt from a synth track).

[pmayjr]

Graham Motion tweet-
It's complicated but the facts are polytrack has been safer & that's my disappointment. Lets hope the new dirt @keeneland is much improved.

[Indian Charlie]

"It's complicated, but the facts are???"

Oh boy.

Facts are, dirt can be much safer than it is.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

"It's complicated, but the facts are???"

Oh boy.

Facts are, dirt can be much safer than it is.

what's that saying....you're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

the people who like synthetics are outnumbered by those who don't, and the powers that be have decided to get the heck away from it. they wouldn't spend money on new surfaces unless they really felt strongly about this. it's the right move.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Graham Motion tweet-
It's complicated but the facts are polytrack has been safer & that's my disappointment. Lets hope the new dirt @keeneland is much improved.

In 2013, He won 30% of his starts over synthetic tracks in North America, and he won a $10 million race on a synthetic track in Dubai.

He's got a barn mostly full of turf bred horse -- and he trains them on synthetic at Fair Hill ... it would be a surprise if he disliked synthetic tracks.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

In 2013, He won 30% of his starts over synthetic tracks in North America, and he won a $10 million race on a synthetic track in Dubai.

He's got a barn mostly full of turf bred horse -- and he trains them on synthetic at Fair Hill ... it would be a surprise if he disliked synthetic tracks.

Pretty much. Motion is a great trainer, but expecting him to have an unbiased opinion on synthetic tracks is foolish.

The bottom line is the data on synthetic vs. dirt is inconclusive at best. Certain synth tracks (Presque Isle, Woodbine) have been markedly safer than the average dirt track, at least in terms of fewer catastrophic breakdowns. There are others (Del Mar, Hollywood) that have been as bad as the worst dirt tracks most years. Then there's the issue of soft tissue injuries, which many trainers have cited as more frequent on synthetic and which don't show up in the breakdown statistics.

Another inconvenient truth for the synthetic crowd is that the circuit which concerted the most effort in making its dirt safer -- NYRA -- got drastically fewer breakdowns in 2013. AQU went from 3.41 fatalities per 1,000 dirt starts to 1.85. BEL went from 1.86 to 0.88. SAR had a slight uptick from 1.23 to 1.29, but that has the smallest sample size of the three tracks.

The well-publicized breakdowns of Barbaro and Eight Belles were a flashpoint for this industry. Instead of getting out in front of the issue and using technology to make our dirt tracks safer, the powers that be cowed to the demagogues and turned the sport upside down with a drastic shift to unproven synthetic surfaces as a cure-all. It's been an unmitigated failure for the sport and marginally, if at all, safer for the horses.

[Benny]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty much. Motion is a great trainer, but expecting him to have an unbiased opinion on synthetic tracks is foolish.

The bottom line is the data on synthetic vs. dirt is inconclusive at best. Certain synth tracks (Presque Isle, Woodbine) have been markedly safer than the average dirt track, at least in terms of fewer catastrophic breakdowns. There are others (Del Mar, Hollywood) that have been as bad as the worst dirt tracks most years. Then there's the issue of soft tissue injuries, which many trainers have cited as more frequent on synthetic and which don't show up in the breakdown statistics.

Another inconvenient truth for the synthetic crowd is that the circuit which concerted the most effort in making its dirt safer -- NYRA -- got drastically fewer breakdowns in 2013. AQU went from 3.41 fatalities per 1,000 dirt starts to 1.85. BEL went from 1.86 to 0.88. SAR had a slight uptick from 1.23 to 1.29, but that has the smallest sample size of the three tracks.

The well-publicized breakdowns of Barbaro and Eight Belles were a flashpoint for this industry. Instead of getting out in front of the issue and using technology to make our dirt tracks safer, the powers that be cowed to the demagogues and turned the sport upside down with a drastic shift to unproven synthetic surfaces as a cure-all. It's been an unmitigated failure for the sport and marginally, if at all, safer for the horses.

Wasn't this also due to more aggressive vet monitoring and scratching a higher number of horses, and lower purses for claimers where more sore horses had been entered too ?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Another inconvenient truth for the synthetic crowd is that the circuit which concerted the most effort in making its dirt safer -- NYRA -- got drastically fewer breakdowns in 2013. AQU went from 3.41 fatalities per 1,000 dirt starts to 1.85. BEL went from 1.86 to 0.88. SAR had a slight uptick from 1.23 to 1.29, but that has the smallest sample size of the three tracks.

Exactly!

You can make dirt safer, or riskier. Same as any surface.

People who believe that synth is inherently safer than dirt are looking at this issue too simplistically.