Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture

pmayjr · #1 03-30-2014, 11:02 AM

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

cakes44 · #2 03-30-2014, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

IF he gets in, I think you get every bit of 15-1.

pmayjr · #3 03-30-2014, 11:42 AM

just when you guys didn't think you could roll your eyes at the stuff I post on here anymore, this one will test that-

So Godolphin owns most of Cairo now-
The theme at the Dubai Carnival the past few months is these really talented graded/group stakes-placed horses that run really long distances 1st off very long layoffs (some as long as a year off)... and most of the time they're flat and not the most fit. But 2nd-off the layoff they wake up. And, that's pretty much the case anywhere, I get that.

I'm not saying that this was the plan. They obviously wanna get in the Derby, and they might've royally messed that up deciding to skip the FoY. But if he gets in, I don't think he'll flatten out as badly. Not only that, we're all speculating a hot pace. Yesterday Wildcat Red had it pretty easy up front. Just saying there are a lot of arguments for major improvement IF he makes it, and now you'll get the odds to back up those arguments.