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#1
03-30-2014, 06:52 AM
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Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture
OK, so we are inside of five weeks to the Kentucky Derby and things could not be any stranger. We have a Louisiana bred, a California bred, and a New York bred as the winners of their respective last prep races. In Florida and Arkansas the latest preps have produced winners that never started until 2014 and will need to overcome the curse of Apollo. Did I mention that we have what looks like a legitimate contender from Dubai, although he's never raced on dirt. In Kentucky, we have a horse that has never won a race on dirt. There is still hope that things can change drastically in the next couple of weeks, but I can not remember things being this cloudy with less than five weeks to the Run for the Roses.
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them 
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#3
03-30-2014, 07:03 AM
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Sounds like someone is researching the oaks/ derby double !
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Ole' Timer says to another leaving Keystone Race Track (Philly ) ...""Its a good thing I broke even today, I really needed the money """!!!! Gotta Love Horse Racing !!
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#4
03-30-2014, 07:50 AM
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Ramsey said yesterday that Bobby's Kitten is going in the Bluegrass, another one that would be first time dirt.
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#5
03-30-2014, 08:24 AM
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Larry, if Cairo Prince does not get in , it might be time to reconsider the new system.
Bill, Yeah - Right now it's Untapable / ALL - Oaks / Derby Double Shannon, He's definitely has a shot in the Blue Frass.
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#6
03-30-2014, 08:29 AM
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It's is amazing to me how many of the preps have been won going wire to wire.
Candy Boy's RBL stake and Intense Holiday Risen star are the only mid pack closers to win a derby prep that I have seen. Constitution won stalking the leader yesterday. Cairo rince won with a nice staking trip in the Holy Bull. Maybe Tonalist will add a nice closer to the mix with a win or placing in the Wood.
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#7
03-30-2014, 08:30 AM
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Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
03-30-2014, 08:38 AM
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#9
03-30-2014, 08:49 AM
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#11
03-30-2014, 09:28 AM
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#12
03-30-2014, 09:52 AM
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#13
03-30-2014, 10:02 AM
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the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-
Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins). Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#15
03-30-2014, 10:29 AM
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#16
03-30-2014, 10:42 AM
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just when you guys didn't think you could roll your eyes at the stuff I post on here anymore, this one will test that-
So Godolphin owns most of Cairo now- The theme at the Dubai Carnival the past few months is these really talented graded/group stakes-placed horses that run really long distances 1st off very long layoffs (some as long as a year off)... and most of the time they're flat and not the most fit. But 2nd-off the layoff they wake up. And, that's pretty much the case anywhere, I get that. I'm not saying that this was the plan. They obviously wanna get in the Derby, and they might've royally messed that up deciding to skip the FoY. But if he gets in, I don't think he'll flatten out as badly. Not only that, we're all speculating a hot pace. Yesterday Wildcat Red had it pretty easy up front. Just saying there are a lot of arguments for major improvement IF he makes it, and now you'll get the odds to back up those arguments.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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#17
03-30-2014, 11:12 AM
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#18
03-30-2014, 12:29 PM
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#20
03-30-2014, 12:56 PM
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That's not going out on a limb, but I'm wondering at this point if after seeingnthose races if anything will be any clearer to us lol
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
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