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#1
02-25-2014, 11:27 AM
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#2
02-25-2014, 01:15 PM
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Have a very bad flu but just had a realization that the Derby is THIS weekend, not next (I'm an idiot).
Ed is Spellbinder the favorite? Puccini? Is there a race for the not-quite-good-enough-for the-Derby types like my poor Lucky Feather?   Do you have a longshot pick or are you sticking with one of the many deserving favorites? OR is it still too early? Exciting!
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#3
02-25-2014, 08:56 PM
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Yep, 3 days to go! So exciting. Hope you feel better soon!
Here are the odds:  So Puccini’s the favourite, just ahead of Rising Romance. I feel like Spellbinder should be lower than 8. I still haven’t decided! I think I’ve got it down to a top five, in no order: Puccini, Glorious Lad, Habitual Offender, Spellbinder, Rising Romance. Also, note the riding change – I said above that Grylls would be riding Habitual Offender, but he’s decided to ride Lucky Feather instead! Leith Innes takes the mount on HO.
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#4
02-26-2014, 03:24 AM
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LUCKY FEATHER
colt Darci Brahma – Glamoury  Owner: J Naito (no Derby wins) Trainer: Toby Autridge & Cyril Goodwin (no Derby wins) Rider: Craig Grylls (no Derby wins) Astonishingly, just a $7,000 purchase at the National Yearling Sale. One of the fairy tale stories of this year’s Derby. (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 15:2-3-2 Stakes races: 3rd Wellington Guineas (G2) 3rd Wellington Stakes (G3) 4th Avondale Guineas (G2) 10th Levin Classic (G1) An extremely underrated colt who hardly ever runs a bad race but never gets the respect and accolades he deserves. To be fair, his only wins have been in maiden and rating 65 grade, so his hopes of actually winning the Derby seem a little bleak. But it would be no surprise to see him run another brave, strong race and lob into a placing. Odds: 40-1 COLONEL CARRERA gelding Duelled – Vargas Diamond  Owner: G Rogerson & Whitby Bloodstock (no Derby wins) Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 12:1-2-0 Stakes races: 2nd Waikato Guineas (G2) 5th Championship Stakes (G2) 11th Avondale Guineas (G2) One of the most inconsistent horses in this field. His maiden win was an incredible runaway romp, and his Waikato Guineas second placing was massively commendable. Apart from that, he’s shown little in his 12-start racing career, and his Avondale Guineas performance was really poor. If the good Colonel Carrera shows up on Derby day, he’s a big chance. But will he? Odds: 60-1 MAYGROVE gelding Authorized – Lady Zhivago  Owner: JML Bloodstock (no Derby wins) Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (no Derby wins) Rider: Chris Johnson (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 10:1-1-4 Stakes races: 9th Championship Stakes (G2) He was outclassed in his only try at stakes level on Jan 1, but seems to have grown into a completely different horse since then – his results since that race have been third, third, first and an unlucky third. He’s rapidly developing and improving, and his pedigree suggests he’ll have plenty of stamina for this test. One of the live longshots. Odds: 30-1 KING SAVINSKY gelding Savabeel – Lynisky  Owner: Fortuna Racing (no Derby wins) Trainer: Jason Bridgman (no Derby wins) Rider: Hayden Tinsley (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 9:1-2-0 Stakes races: 4th Canterbury Stakes (L) 4th Championship Stakes Prelude (L) 6th Trevor Eagle Memorial (L) 10th Waikato Guineas (G2) He’s looked good in lower grades, such as his maiden win and some strong efforts in minor stakes races. But against the horses he’s facing in the Derby, he’s come up short – more than six lengths adrift of Puccini in the Waikato Guineas. He’ll have to lift his game. Odds: 60-1
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#5
02-26-2014, 08:01 AM
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Some good Derby stuff from Trackside TV.
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6-Pq2SyXYk Puccini: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHboEU8AFjg Spellbinder: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tO33n4FDaM Rising Romance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-OQBtvRnZc Glorious Lad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AWo8ElLTUk
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#6
02-26-2014, 06:15 PM
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#7
02-27-2014, 01:09 AM
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Yeah, Maygrove is a stunning individual! And I think he’s going to be a good racehorse, but just not sure if that’ll happen in time for this weekend.
The draw was done yesterday. Here it is: 1 Rising Romance 2 Blizzard 3 Puccini 4 Fast Dragon 5 In A Minute 6 Sir Lancelot 7 Lucky Feather 8 Stand Your Ground 9 Kentucky Son 10 We’regoingtogetcha 11 Glorious Lad 12 Mr Frankey 13 Maygrove 14 Tokomutu Judge 15 Colonel Carrera 16 Habitual Offender 17 Chipandchase 18 Thorn Pass 19 Spellbinder 20 King Savinsky 21 The Fire Inside 22 Valdivia Note that only 18 horses can run, so Sir Lancelot, Valdivia, In A Minute and Tokomutu Judge all need scratchings to make it into the field. It’s an interesting draw – a lot of the favourites are either a bit too far in (Rising Romance, Puccini) or way too far out (Spellbinder). Although I think Puccini can push through and take the lead and avoid any trouble.
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#8
02-27-2014, 01:49 AM
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Don't have photos for all of these, sorry!
FAST DRAGON colt Fastnet Rock – Secret Silence  Owner: Able International (no Derby wins) Trainer: Bruce Wallace (no Derby wins) Rider: Johnathon Parkes (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 12:1-0-2 Stakes races: 1st Champagne Stakes (L,2yo) 3rd Karaka Mile (L) 3rd Trevor Eagle Memorial (L) 4th Championship Stakes (G2) 6th Avondale Guineas (G2) Hasn’t been able to repeat his impressive stakes win as a 2-year-old, but he’s produced some useful performances this season. It’s just a bit hard to see him turning around the 7-length margin Puccini beat him by in their last meeting, and his pedigree has some question marks around stamina – his brother Albany Reunion is a very speedy, stakes-placed sprinter. Odds: 60-1 KENTUCKY SON gelding Civics – Southern Triumph Owner: S Boshier, M Cunningham, P Dobson, J & A Parnwell (no Derby wins) Trainer: Lee Somervell (no Derby wins) Rider: Trudy Thornton (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 12:2-1-2 Stakes races: 4th Trevor Eagle Memorial (L) 9th Great Northern Guineas (G2) 15th Waikato Guineas (G2) 15th Avondale Guineas (G2) Those yellow silks of the Parnwell-Somervell combination have had some great moments at Ellerslie, most notably the Group 1 Railway win by top mare Fleur de Lune. It’s hard to see them adding another one here. This horse has finished last in both the Waikato Guineas and Avondale Guineas. He did a lot better last weekend back down in rating 75 grade, but this looks like too big a mountain to climb. Odds: 100-1 MR FRANKEY gelding Towkay – Franchice Owner: K Dixon, P Finlayson, L Latta, M Masters, M Passey, A Rennie & T Tomlins (no Derby wins) Trainer: Lisa Latta (no Derby wins) Rider: Sam Spratt (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 7:1-1-2 No stakes races. An admirable model of consistency in lower grades – never further back than fifth in his seven starts – this is a daunting first crack at stakes level for the son of Towkay. Two starts ago he finished within a length of leading Oaks prospect Chop Chop, and last time out he was right up behind Habitual Offender, so there’s some ability there. He could finish in the top half of the field, but it’s hard to see Mr Frankey providing a first Derby triumph to Lisa Latta and Sam Spratt. Odds: 50-1 CHIPANDCHASE gelding Pentire – Charmaine (Pentire sired 2004 Derby winner Xcellent. Charmaine is the dam of stakes-placed Charma) Owner: B Devine, Sir Colin & Lady Meads, T Moore, M & E Oram, C Robertson, N & J Toy, A & N Walters (no Derby wins) Trainer: Stephen Marsh (no Derby wins) Rider: Noel Harris (Hail 2000) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 7:1-1-0 Stakes races: 8th Championship Stakes (G2) 10th Karaka Mile (L) 14 years ago, Noel Harris won the Derby aboard Hail for trainer Bruce Marsh. This time he’s riding a Derby hope for another Marsh – Bruce’s son Stephen. But this gelding seems less well-credentialed, with only a maiden win and a rating 65 second to show for his seven starts so far. Stephen Marsh and part-owner/legendary former rugby player Colin Meads combined for a Group 1 win during this week last year with Ruud Awakening, but there’s been little to suggest Chipandchase is a serious chance of making lightning strike twice. Odds: 50-1 THE FIRE INSIDE filly Sir Percy – Burning Desire (from the first crop of Epsom Derby winner Sir Percy) Owner: Betalert Ltd, I McCarrison, P Moroney, J Vaughan & G Williams (McCarrison and Moroney won the 2004 Derby with Xcellent; Moroney also won in 2003 with Cut The Cake) Trainer: Mike Moroney (Great Command 1996, Cut The Cake 2003, Xcellent 2004) & Chad Ormsby Rider: Mark Sweeney (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 6:2-1-2 Stakes races: 3rd Sir Tristram Fillies’ Classic (G2) Ran a terrific race to finish third, two lengths behind Hera and pellbinder, in the Sir Tristram. Looks likely to thrive over the testing 2400m. Could be more of a chance in this than many are giving her credit for. Odds: 25-1 SIR LANCELOT gelding Stravinsky – Shall We Dance (so a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Pulcinella) Owner: C & L Betts (no Derby wins) Trainer: Jeff McVean (Leica Guv 2001) & Emma-Lee Browne Rider: TO BE CONFIRMED (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 8:1-0-1 Stakes races: 11th Great Northern Guineas (G2) Needs one scratching to make the field. He’s run a couple of decent races, but hasn’t really shown enough to be considered a huge chance in this. Odds: 80-1 VALDIVIA gelding Don Eduardo – Just Polly (Don Eduardo, still the all-time record for most expensive yearling ever sold in NZ at $3.4m, won the Derby in Sydney as a 3-year-old) Owner: JML Bloodstock & M Wyborn (no Derby wins) Trainer: Mike Moroney (Great Command 1996, Cut The Cake 2003, Xcellent 2004) & Chad Ormsby Rider: TO BE CONFIRMED (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 5:1-0-0 Stakes races: 5th Waikato Guineas (G2) Needs two scratchings to make the field. Ran an excellent race at massive odds in the Waikato Guineas, finishing just 3.2 lengths behind Puccini. Seemed to be peaking at the right time and about to do something special to thrust his way into the Derby field, but finished a hugely disappointing seventh in weaker company next time out. But he’d be an intriguing runner if he ran up to the Waikato Guineas level again. Odds: 50-1 IN A MINUTE gelding Spartacus – Mintelle Owner: D Karreman/The Oaks Stud (no Derby wins) Trainer: Ralph Manning (no Derby wins) Rider: TO BE CONFIRMED (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 4:1-1-0 No stakes races Needs three scratchings to make the field. In 2006 The Oaks Stud came so close to Derby glory with Roman Chariot, beaten only by determined front-runner Wahid. They haven’t come as close since. This year looked like being their best chance with exciting 3-year-old All Torn Up, but that fell apart in a pre-race disaster at the Waikato Guineas that saw him come out of that race and off the Derby trail. Talented gelding In A Minute is his replacement, and his performances so far suggest he’s not quite at the same level. A well-beaten eighth behind Habitual Offender last time out. Odds: 80-1 TOKOMUTU JUDGE gelding Volksraad – Shock (Volksraad sired 2010 Derby winner Military Move. Shock was a stakes performer herself) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 11:1-2-1 No stakes races Needs an extremely unlikely four scratchings to make the field, and best performances have been on slow to heavy ground. Not likely to figure. Odds: 125-1
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#9
02-26-2014, 06:13 PM
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Am surprised but happy! I like your top five.  No idea who else I'd use besides Puccini and Spellbinder. I mean I would use both on top and Rising Romance underneath but Jesus Christ they are a great bunch this time aren't they??!! Super excited and wow thank you again for all the fantastic posts and links!!!!! When is the barrier draw?
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