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#1
02-23-2014, 08:37 PM
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Actually, ignore the above - Delago's Secret is out of the Derby! Withdrawn this morning by Roger James. It sounds like he doesn't think the horse is ready for a race like that and needs time to develop and mature. Brave decision and a big example of putting the horse first. Great trainer. Maybe he'll get his sixth NZ Derby next year.
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#2
02-24-2014, 09:18 PM
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HABITUAL OFFENDER
gelding Guillotine – Ascot Isle  Owner: M Wyborn & R Peel-Walker (no Derby wins) Trainer: Mike Moroney (Great Command 1996, Cut The Cake 2003, Xcellent 2004) and Chad Ormsby Rider: Craig Grylls (no Derby wins) $100,000 purchase at the National Yearling Sale. (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 5:2-0-0 Stakes races: 6th Great Northern Guineas (G2) A latecomer who only forced his way into the Derby field with an Ellerslie win on Feb 15. That was his first race over further than a mile, and this gelding was in his element. He was strong and tough and highly impressive. He may have only just made it into the field, but he looks like a powerful runner who’s peaking at the right time. This is a huge step up in class, but he might be a surprise package. Odds: 20-1 THORN PASS gelding Thorn Park – En Passant (Thorn Park sired 2011 Derby hero Jimmy Choux)  Owner: Go Racing Syndicate Trainer: Lisa Latta (no Derby wins) Rider: NOT CONFIRMED (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 8:2-2-0 Stakes races: 7th Levin Classic (G1) 10th Avondale Guineas (G2) When he’s good, this Thorn Park gelding is seriously good. His wins at Otaki and Awapuni were stunning. But in between those wins, and since, he’s fallen way short of that level. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get from him. But his A game could make him a factor in the Derby. Odds: 20-1 STAND YOUR GROUND gelding Coats Choice – Cruella  Owner: A Bradley, D R Frampton, A M Goodwin, J E Harman & W M Woods (no Derby wins) Trainer: Donna & Dean Logan (Habibi 2013) Rider: Vinnie Colgan (Roysyn 1995, Zonda 1997, Hades 1999, Redoute’s Dancer 2007, Habibi 2013) $62,000 purchase at the National Yearling Sale. (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 9-1-1-3 No stakes races Having done all his racing in much lower grades, Stand Your Ground faces a mountainous step up in class for his tilt at the Derby. But his performances in his last few starts have been excellent. He was third to subsequent Waikato Guineas runner-up Colonel Carerra at Ellerslie, then won strongly at Ellerslie, then had another good third at Ellerslie. The only blot on that form line is his last start, when he finished 11th of 12, but he never had any room to move at any point down the home stretch and never had the chance to accelerate. Another big thing in Stand Your Ground’s favour is Vinnie Colgan, five-time Derby winner, who has picked him as his 2014 Derby mount.
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#4
02-25-2014, 11:27 AM
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#5
02-25-2014, 01:15 PM
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Have a very bad flu but just had a realization that the Derby is THIS weekend, not next (I'm an idiot).
Ed is Spellbinder the favorite? Puccini? Is there a race for the not-quite-good-enough-for the-Derby types like my poor Lucky Feather?   Do you have a longshot pick or are you sticking with one of the many deserving favorites? OR is it still too early? Exciting!
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#6
02-25-2014, 08:56 PM
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Yep, 3 days to go! So exciting. Hope you feel better soon!
Here are the odds:  So Puccini’s the favourite, just ahead of Rising Romance. I feel like Spellbinder should be lower than 8. I still haven’t decided! I think I’ve got it down to a top five, in no order: Puccini, Glorious Lad, Habitual Offender, Spellbinder, Rising Romance. Also, note the riding change – I said above that Grylls would be riding Habitual Offender, but he’s decided to ride Lucky Feather instead! Leith Innes takes the mount on HO.
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#7
02-26-2014, 03:24 AM
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LUCKY FEATHER
colt Darci Brahma – Glamoury  Owner: J Naito (no Derby wins) Trainer: Toby Autridge & Cyril Goodwin (no Derby wins) Rider: Craig Grylls (no Derby wins) Astonishingly, just a $7,000 purchase at the National Yearling Sale. One of the fairy tale stories of this year’s Derby. (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 15:2-3-2 Stakes races: 3rd Wellington Guineas (G2) 3rd Wellington Stakes (G3) 4th Avondale Guineas (G2) 10th Levin Classic (G1) An extremely underrated colt who hardly ever runs a bad race but never gets the respect and accolades he deserves. To be fair, his only wins have been in maiden and rating 65 grade, so his hopes of actually winning the Derby seem a little bleak. But it would be no surprise to see him run another brave, strong race and lob into a placing. Odds: 40-1 COLONEL CARRERA gelding Duelled – Vargas Diamond  Owner: G Rogerson & Whitby Bloodstock (no Derby wins) Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 12:1-2-0 Stakes races: 2nd Waikato Guineas (G2) 5th Championship Stakes (G2) 11th Avondale Guineas (G2) One of the most inconsistent horses in this field. His maiden win was an incredible runaway romp, and his Waikato Guineas second placing was massively commendable. Apart from that, he’s shown little in his 12-start racing career, and his Avondale Guineas performance was really poor. If the good Colonel Carrera shows up on Derby day, he’s a big chance. But will he? Odds: 60-1 MAYGROVE gelding Authorized – Lady Zhivago  Owner: JML Bloodstock (no Derby wins) Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (no Derby wins) Rider: Chris Johnson (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 10:1-1-4 Stakes races: 9th Championship Stakes (G2) He was outclassed in his only try at stakes level on Jan 1, but seems to have grown into a completely different horse since then – his results since that race have been third, third, first and an unlucky third. He’s rapidly developing and improving, and his pedigree suggests he’ll have plenty of stamina for this test. One of the live longshots. Odds: 30-1 KING SAVINSKY gelding Savabeel – Lynisky  Owner: Fortuna Racing (no Derby wins) Trainer: Jason Bridgman (no Derby wins) Rider: Hayden Tinsley (no Derby wins) (Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 9:1-2-0 Stakes races: 4th Canterbury Stakes (L) 4th Championship Stakes Prelude (L) 6th Trevor Eagle Memorial (L) 10th Waikato Guineas (G2) He’s looked good in lower grades, such as his maiden win and some strong efforts in minor stakes races. But against the horses he’s facing in the Derby, he’s come up short – more than six lengths adrift of Puccini in the Waikato Guineas. He’ll have to lift his game. Odds: 60-1
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#8
02-26-2014, 08:01 AM
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Some good Derby stuff from Trackside TV.
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6-Pq2SyXYk Puccini: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHboEU8AFjg Spellbinder: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tO33n4FDaM Rising Romance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-OQBtvRnZc Glorious Lad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AWo8ElLTUk
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#9
02-26-2014, 06:15 PM
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#10
02-26-2014, 06:13 PM
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Am surprised but happy! I like your top five.  No idea who else I'd use besides Puccini and Spellbinder. I mean I would use both on top and Rising Romance underneath but Jesus Christ they are a great bunch this time aren't they??!! Super excited and wow thank you again for all the fantastic posts and links!!!!! When is the barrier draw?
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Hybrid Mode
