The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

[pmayjr]

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

Agree.

[cmorioles]

The pace wasn't that strong, and clearly the bias was a MUCH bigger factor than the pace. Also, there is a big difference between naturally dropping back and running into a hot pace later and being drug back and yanked over to the rail to save ground.

Again, I'm no big fan, but he had no shot today from that post on that track.

[Indian Charlie]

I highly doubt he was fully cranked to win this race as well.

I thought what was most interesting was the 1. He looked like he was under some urging pretty early in the race.

[LITF]

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by LITF

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I thought Mexicoma ran a solid race too.

But...

Rick Mettee?????

I'd just as soon have Randy Bradshaw or Alex Hassinger train a horse.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by LITF

As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I think there needs to be some discussion about the top finishers in the Fairgrounds race. Do I think any of the horses I saw in the Risen Star could beat Cairo Prince? No. But, I'm not convinced what was running in the Fountain of Youth was any better than what was at FG. At least as far as Derby potential is concerned. At a mile and sixteenth, Wildcat Red and General Arod can carry their speed that far. But much further? Speed bias or not, I have serious questions about that.

With the way Gulfstream was playing today, Intense Holiday probably wouldn't have won the Fountain of Youth. But on paper was he really all that much worse than the others in the FoY?

[RockHardTen1985]

The track did favor speed, but there was a big pace in Top Billings race. He put in an OK run and is what he is, OK. He's still the second best 3yr old in Shugs barn. Nothing today changed that. I am a little concerned with how he flattened out late, maybe he doesn't want as much distance as some people think.