The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

[letswastemoney]

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

[tanner12oz]

He has a turn of foot but ya gotta win...he might be a clunk up superfecta type

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

Couldn't agree more on all points. He seemed to break well enough, but what good does it do in those 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream if it's gonna get you parked 5 wide? He might have been best, but like you said, no idea how good that is. Not that it necessarily takes some super animal to win the Florida Derby and/or Kentucky Derby, as we saw last year.

[pmayjr]

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

Agree.

[cmorioles]

The pace wasn't that strong, and clearly the bias was a MUCH bigger factor than the pace. Also, there is a big difference between naturally dropping back and running into a hot pace later and being drug back and yanked over to the rail to save ground.

Again, I'm no big fan, but he had no shot today from that post on that track.

[RockHardTen1985]

The track did favor speed, but there was a big pace in Top Billings race. He put in an OK run and is what he is, OK. He's still the second best 3yr old in Shugs barn. Nothing today changed that. I am a little concerned with how he flattened out late, maybe he doesn't want as much distance as some people think.