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#1
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![]() Quote:
damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective. it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet. even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%. i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return. |
#2
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![]() Yes but the secret is out. The years to bet the field were much more in the beginning of the process. I used to bet a grand on it every year till the public caught on. Now it just isn't as attractive at 3/2 or less field 1....and in Nov? 2/5 to tie up my money isn't happening.
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#3
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![]() If this was all about drumming up buzz, then put an 8% takeout on the bet. Give people a reason to tie up there money.
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