Derby Future added for November

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

$30 wagered as a $2 bet every year would have returned $49 which is actually a 63.3% flat return.

damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective.

it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet.

even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%.

i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return.

[randallscott35]

Yes but the secret is out. The years to bet the field were much more in the beginning of the process. I used to bet a grand on it every year till the public caught on. Now it just isn't as attractive at 3/2 or less field 1....and in Nov? 2/5 to tie up my money isn't happening.

[randallscott35]

If this was all about drumming up buzz, then put an 8% takeout on the bet. Give people a reason to tie up there money.