Can Retirement REALLY be Far Behind?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Why does anyone care so much?
The Sheikhs and Coolmore both have bought unmitigated disasters in the last 20 years. Both of em.
The fact that this one at 8 million, ooops I meant 16 million, looks to be a bust shouldn't shock anyone.
No matter how much talent they show as young horses just getting them to the races is about an even money prop, getting them to win a race less than that, getting them to be a stakes horse incredibly hard, and getting them to win a grade one just about impossible statistically.
I haven't understood the Green Monkey watch at all.
I mean, the horse that Sekiguchi has with Baffert who won a slow maiden race earlier this year and then disappeared cost just as much(in actuality) and would be considered a bust as well.
I guess I just have a hard time worrying about a bad buy made by either guys who own oil wells, or a guy who owns the British soccer pools.

I think your numbers are way off. At the 2 year old sales, if you only buy horses with good comformation, that pass the vet, appear very sound, and have a good way of moving, the chances of the horse making it to the races is probably about 95%. If they were one of the best horses at the sale, the chances of them winning a race are probably about 75% and the chances of them being a stakes horse are probably about 25%. When you see a horse like What a Song working a quarter of a mile in :20 3/5 at a sale, there is an excellent chance that he will be a stakes horse. If a horse works that fast and has a good way of moving, there's at least a 25% chance that the horse will be a stakes horse. That's why the horse went for $1.8 million, even with a mediocre pedigree.

Yearling sales are a totally different story. The chances of picking out a good horse are much smaller there. At a yerling sale, if you pick out the best looking horse with the best breeding, there still is probably only about a 5-10% chance of getting a stakes horse.

With all these percenatges that I'm throwing out here, I'm making the assumption that the person picking the horses is extremely good at it. If you don't have a good eye, your percenatges would be much lower.

Take a guy like Bob Baffert. He has a very good eye. When he buys a horse for $1 million at a 2 year olds in training sale, you can bet that the horse will be a very good horse. At the Barrett's sale last year, he bought two expensive horses. He paid $1.8 million for What a Song and around $800,000 for Point Determined. Both horses turned out to be stakes horses. This year at Barretts, he only bought one expensive horse. He bought an Exploit colt for $1.2 million. I can't think of the horse's name but that horse is 2 for 2 and is a stakes winner.

Anyway, the point is that if you know what you are doing and are willing to pay top dollar at the 2 year old sales, you will get very good horses. At the yearling sales, it is much more difficult because you have far less to go on.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think your numbers are way off. At the 2 year old sales, if you only buy horses with good comformation, that pass the vet, appear very sound, and have a good way of moving, the chances of the horse making it to the races is probably about 95%. If they were one of the best horses at the sale, the chances of them winning a race are probably about 75% and the chances of them being a stakes horse are probably about 25%. When you see a horse like What a Song working a quarter of a mile in :20 3/5 at a sale, there is an excellent chance that he will be a stakes horse. If a horse works that fast and has a good way of moving, there's at least a 25% chance that the horse will be a stakes horse. That's why the horse went for $1.8 million, even with a mediocre pedigree.

Yearling sales are a totally different story. The chances of picking out a good horse are much smaller there. At a yerling sale, if you pick out the best looking horse with the best breeding, there still is probably only about a 5-10% chance of getting a stakes horse.

With all these percenatges that I'm throwing out here, I'm making the assumption that the person picking the horses is extremely good at it. If you don't have a good eye, your percenatges would be much lower.

Take a guy like Bob Baffert. He has a very good eye. When he buys a horse for $1 million at a 2 year olds in training sale, you can bet that the horse will be a very good horse. At the Barrett's sale last year, he bought two expensive horses. He paid $1.8 million for What a Song and around $800,000 for Point Determined. Both horses turned out to be stakes horses. This year at Barretts, he only bought one expensive horse. He bought an Exploit colt for $1.2 million. I can't think of the horse's name but that horse is 2 for 2 and is a stakes winner.

Anyway, the point is that if you know what you are doing and are willing to pay top dollar at the 2 year old sales, you will get very good horses. At the yearling sales, it is much more difficult because you have far less to go on.

Is E Z Warrior the colt you are thinking of?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is E Z Warrior the colt you are thinking of?

Yes. That is the horse.

[sumitas]

It's obvious the GM is a fast horse because of that one work. If he can be sound there is no reason to think he can't compete as a 3 yr. old.