Get ready for smaller field sizes

[Frost King]

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

Got you. I just replied to your quote...wasn't meant to be on your take....Seeing you quoted in lots of articles. Don't get overexposed like Miley.

[Frost King]

See what would be interesting to see, is what level is the foal crop historically speaking? Is it declining because we had a peak, or it been steady, and we now have a down turn. I still think, that the same number of horses will make the races. It just means that animals, that were relatively too slow to run, will make there way into the cycle, and all the other class levels will be artifically rased to fill the void. If tracks are not closing, and there are. Purses to be won, people will dress up donkeys to participate and get the money. It is just human greed.

[10 pnt move up]

Some decent points made on this, going to be interesting to follow.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

The question that is hard to answer is how much have economics played a role in this trend? Surely owners were more likely to pull the plug on non or low earners the last 6 or 7 years than in years past and what role does the reduction in number of races offered play? I have no way of proving it but from conversations with other trainers in various parts of the country, the % of owners not paying or being severely tardy paying bills has increased quite a bit in 10 years. The amount of owners asking for 50/50 deals with no bills is crazy compared to 15 years ago. I'd say that 75% of inquires from owners in the last 3 or 4 years for me personally are from people wanting to cut a deal and pay a severely reduced or no day rate. In theory the ones that make the races on a deal would race more in order to make up the lack of expense money but lets be honest, no one is asking for deals on good horses, it the unraced ones with issues that are offered.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

Horses who cant run, cant run. They don't make it. There isn't some sub section of potential maiden 10 claimers that isn't racing now that will be raced because of a shortage.