Get ready for smaller field sizes

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

Got you. I just replied to your quote...wasn't meant to be on your take....Seeing you quoted in lots of articles. Don't get overexposed like Miley.

[Frost King]

See what would be interesting to see, is what level is the foal crop historically speaking? Is it declining because we had a peak, or it been steady, and we now have a down turn. I still think, that the same number of horses will make the races. It just means that animals, that were relatively too slow to run, will make there way into the cycle, and all the other class levels will be artifically rased to fill the void. If tracks are not closing, and there are. Purses to be won, people will dress up donkeys to participate and get the money. It is just human greed.

[10 pnt move up]

Some decent points made on this, going to be interesting to follow.

[Danzig]

it all has to do with supply and demand. i expect foal crops to start rising again, since the last few sales seem to have exhibited strength that hasn't been there in a while.
farms have been cutting back on mares bred, since the buyers weren't there. the climate is changing. of course in this business it takes several years to get things turned around, but it will turn around.
that said, there are too many stakes, too many races, and too many commerical breeders.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it all has to do with supply and demand. i expect foal crops to start rising again, since the last few sales seem to have exhibited strength that hasn't been there in a while.
farms have been cutting back on mares bred, since the buyers weren't there. the climate is changing. of course in this business it takes several years to get things turned around, but it will turn around.
that said, there are too many stakes, too many races, and too many commerical breeders.

I'm not sure about this. Yes top shelf stock is demanding higher prices this year, but that does not necessarily transcend throughout the entire crop.

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm not sure about this. Yes top shelf stock is demanding higher prices this year, but that does not necessarily transcend throughout the entire crop.

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.

I think that supply and demand is in full effect this year. The most recent FT Timonium sale was almost 1/3rd smaller this year than 2011 and the prices were very strong for less than stellar horses. The lower tier horses aren't quite as bad as they used to be because the bad and old mares were taken out of production. Younger mares without great credentials weren't bred. Stallion owners did less filling out of books. Those horses kept the prices overall down but there were always a few low priced gems that came out of the sale. This year and at the end of keeneland those horses that I used to scoop up for 5k are selling for 20k. There is money out there looking to get in because the stock market is riding high.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Without an influx of new owners, or at least a majority of the owners that we forced out of the game due to the economy collapse, the foal crop will remain stagnant. By and large it cost just as much to keep a 10 claimer as it does to keep a G1 winner. We need a sustainable model to makes owning low tier horses viable, and the syndicates to come back and buy them.

If you solve this issue, a lot of dominos would fall in place. The answer remains elusive though.

The irony of the foal crop reduction talk is that soon stallion fees for 2014 will be released and I'd be surprised if there weren't a whole lot of increases based on the strong showing in the sales ring this year.