Get ready for smaller field sizes

[randallscott35]

Inevitable.

[Cannon Shell]

I am always amazed at the lack of detail in virtually everything racing does. Yeah there are a lot fewer foals being born and it will certainly impact racing but everyone acts as though this will affect all circuits the same and this just isn't so. Taken as a whole the foal crop has huge disparities within in regards to quality and regional makeup. If the state of Washington loses 50% of its foal crop it isn't going to affect racing in NY at all because no horses racing in NY come from there and any horses imported to Washington from other areas to make up the difference would be of a lesser quality. The foal crop reduction should in theory affect the smaller tracks worst because there isn't that much of a reduction in the top of the line stock, no one stopped breeding quality mares to good stallions. However it is far easier to find cheap stock and lower quality horses race more often and horses from the top part of the food chain that aren't breeding caliber (virtually all male horses) eventually make their way down the ladder. So the top tier tracks shouldn't take that big of a hit (though they should address the other reasons why fields are smaller and in a lot of cases crappy-too many stakes, too few trainer with too many horses, etc) and the bottom level tracks should be ok too. The real danger is the middle tier tracks like Monmouth and Arlington and Delaware whose purses aren't nearly as good as the upper crust but who don't offer a steady stream of 5000 claimers like the lower tier tracks.

One sentiment that is always given that puts horsemen in a negative light is that most groups resist a reduction in dates and on the face of it, it seems like logical reasoning. However life doesn't operate in a vacuum and far too often date reductions come with a catch especially at tracks that are already hinting at hopes of eliminating racing even if the general public doesn't interpret those hints correctly.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

However life doesn't operate in a vacuum and far too often date reductions come with a catch especially at tracks that are already hinting at hopes of eliminating racing even if the general public doesn't interpret those hints correctly.

Truer words were never spoken. And that really gets me pissed.

[Frost King]

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fewer foals doesn't have to mean smaller fields.

That really has nothing to do with what I'm saying was identified. Just a fact...fewer percentages from foal crops are racing relative to ten years ago.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This was discussed at the conference in the same presentation, and while I don't recall the exact numbers, the trends showed across all age groups, the percentages of horses within a foal crop racing at ages three through nine was down 10-20% since 2003.

It's not just the change in how much racing there is, or field size, but that fewer horses within each crop are making it to races, and actually hanging around.

The question that is hard to answer is how much have economics played a role in this trend? Surely owners were more likely to pull the plug on non or low earners the last 6 or 7 years than in years past and what role does the reduction in number of races offered play? I have no way of proving it but from conversations with other trainers in various parts of the country, the % of owners not paying or being severely tardy paying bills has increased quite a bit in 10 years. The amount of owners asking for 50/50 deals with no bills is crazy compared to 15 years ago. I'd say that 75% of inquires from owners in the last 3 or 4 years for me personally are from people wanting to cut a deal and pay a severely reduced or no day rate. In theory the ones that make the races on a deal would race more in order to make up the lack of expense money but lets be honest, no one is asking for deals on good horses, it the unraced ones with issues that are offered.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Frost King

Just out of curiosity, anybody know what percentage of the annual foal crop makes it too the races? The only thing I see happening, is that animals that would have been culls for racing, are going to end up in training to feed the racing shortage. In turn diluting the quality of racing even more.

Horses who cant run, cant run. They don't make it. There isn't some sub section of potential maiden 10 claimers that isn't racing now that will be raced because of a shortage.