How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.