How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Port Conway Lane]

This makes Pleasant Colony a rare bird indeed.

[10 pnt move up]

Doug,

Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness?

Here is the Paceline

CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver

So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins.

Either way I wills stab against Orb.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Doug,

Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness?

Here is the Paceline

CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver

So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins.

Either way I wills stab against Orb.

Super Saver might have just been a slop freak.

He only raced twice on a sloppy track, one time he broke his maiden by 7 lengths in a race where the 3rd place horse was beaten 15 lengths and the 4th place horse was beaten 20 lengths.

His other sloppy track race, he of course won the Derby with Borel after getting a clear rail trip.

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with. I'd love to see Dreaming of Julia step up...but Pletcher is talking about running her in the Belmont Stakes. I don't know about that though, she's out of the Rick Violette speed sprinter Dream Rush...which sure does offset a lot of the A. P. Indy on the top of the pedigree.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with.

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

[RockHardTen1985]

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Without a doubt this is true.

Like I said, you have to go fishing if you want to bet against Orb. There isn't much out there.

[pweizer]

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

Speaking of which...

Here's another stat from the good ole Post Derby file:

In the history of the Derby, 74 horses have now run an opening 1/4 mile faster than 22.80 seconds.

Only one of those 74 went on to win. Bold Forbes in 1976.

10 beaten post time favorites among the 74 horses who went faster than 22.80 in the opening quarter.

Four went faster than 22.80 this year:

Palace Malice
Goldencents (beaten 49.5 lengths)
Falling Sky (beaten 53 lengths)
Verrazano (beaten just 15.75 lengths)


Vyjack (beaten 52.75 lengths) missed the cut by running his first quarter in 22.86 but having to go so wide into the first turn after running that fast quarter probably didn't help his cause much.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yep. The info you provided is good and definitely shows a useful historical trend. But three of those Derby-winning closers were only denied a repeat in the Preakness by Summer Squall, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra. I don't think there's anybody like that lining up against Orb in Pimlico.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doesn't Orbs Fl Derby tell you he can be much closer to the pace if needed?

Originally Posted by pweizer

You jumped off the Goldencents bandwagon awfully quickly. I think he may be the one I would try.

Paul

He did look uncomfortable on the track on Saturday.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

This makes Pleasant Colony a rare bird indeed.

Alysheba and Spectacular Bid both did recently win the Derby from 10 lengths or more back as well.

However, Alysheba did it with dramatic flair, almost falling, and coming on to win anyway.

Spectacular Bid, meanwhile, did it against a historic slow pace.

Spectacular Bid ducked in a bit at the start, and was settled 6.5 lengths behind a 24 1/5th opening quarter.

How slow is a 24 1/5 opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby?

It's the outright slowest in the Derby since 1959 (54 years ago!)

And the last time an opening quarter in the Kentucky Derby went slower than 24 1/5th was 1912 (101 years ago) when a horse named Worth got away with a 24 3/5th opening quarter and went wire-to-wire in 2:09 2/5th over a track that was a bog.

General Assembly, who was leading after that historically slow 1st quarter kicked it in a bit and Spectacular Bid was 10 lengths back and in 6th position after a half in 47 2/5ths.

He made a powerhouse 5-wide move on the far turn and won going away despite the slow pace.

Spectacular Bid's Ragozin figure was the second fastest Kentucky Derby figure in the 1900's ... trailing only Secretariat's by 1 point.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Alysheba and Spectacular Bid both did recently win the Derby from 10 lengths or more back as well.

I would have never guessed, especially SB. I remember that bold move but didn't realize it was from so far back. I'm still waiting for Screen King to pass GA for the exacta. I do have the very colorful $5 win and $5 exacta box tote tickets for sale at face value.