not to beat a dead horse but, ...

[todko]

Play the tape and watch Birdstone. He was motoring right along during the fast mid fractions. Actually starting gaining on the far turn. A slower pace and Smarty would have had to fight Birdstone earlier. Birdstone didn't get left behind during those fractions.

I don't believe that's a fight Smarty would have won. A protracted duel with a well trained, well rested, and well bred horse ridden by Edgar Prado at Belmont. Birdstone would have hooked him earlier and the late fractions would have been faster. And I believe the result would have been the same.

The time was right at 2:27. A very solid Belmont time. Better than Afleet Alex ran -- far better.