Weekend Stakes Beyers: Goldencents 105, Verrazano 95

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

I do not believe the track slowed down 4 lengths between the Gazelle and the Wood. I think Verrazano will be a vulnerable favorite and will not hit the board in the Derby.

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

[RockHardTen1985]

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

Emollient 97

[Alabama Stakes]

in the Wood at least they were running 24's after a half mile. the other race last 1/8 was 14. about 10 lengths slower than how they came home in the Wood

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

in the Wood at least they were running 24's after a half mile. the other race last 1/8 was 14. about 10 lengths slower than how they came home in the Wood

Gee, I wonder why?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

Honestly, I had not checked. I know now they did. I'll leave that for others to debate, been down that road too many times.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Honestly, I had not checked. I know now they did. I'll leave that for others to debate, been down that road too many times.

It's an ugly road.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

I was going to send him my copy of Beyer on Speed. What am I going to do with it?

[Calzone Lord]

I think the last race on the card on Saturday at AQU would have got the exact same field, minus maybe Minescape and Smokin Hero, and possibly plus an extra plodding router or two if it had been carded at 9f instead of 8f.

It's a pet peeve of mine, and probably mine alone, but it's always a little easier to feel confident when you have an extra 2-turn dirt race to work with.

Had the Gazelle not been carded on this day, and with the weather like it was, I think it would have put people trying to gauge the fractions and final time in a trickier spot than they'd ideally want to be in.

I'm sure these are matters that a racing secretary couldn't care less about ... but I was struck by how incredibly rare standalone two turn dirt routes (or stakes run at standalone distances that day even) were on major racing days in the old days.

Even a race like the Belmont Stakes at a rarely run distance of 12f would usually have at least one companion race. They'd run a maiden race at 12f on dirt a lot of times on Belmont Stakes day. I don't know if that was just coincidence or what.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Even a race like the Belmont Stakes at a rarely run distance of 12f would usually have at least one companion race. They'd run a maiden race at 12f on dirt a lot of times on Belmont Stakes day. I don't know if that was just coincidence or what.

Wasn't that for the network to kind of get an idea of how to film the Belmont itself?