Weekend Stakes Beyers: Goldencents 105, Verrazano 95

[pick4]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Judging by these splits and final time was Verrazano lucky to be getting a 95 Beyer?

I do not know the answer to that question. I do know that the person who assigned the BSF did project that the track slowed down by about 4 lengths between 4:39 and 6:30.

It was windy in New York on Saturday and I know the wind off the Bay is very strong at times. I was not at Aqueduct so I cannot verify the effects of the wind. My opinion is they projected downward the BSF of the Gazelle based on the recent final BSF's assigned to the fillies in their races.

I do not believe the track slowed down 4 lengths between the Gazelle and the Wood. I think Verrazano will be a vulnerable favorite and will not hit the board in the Derby.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

I do not believe the track slowed down 4 lengths between the Gazelle and the Wood. I think Verrazano will be a vulnerable favorite and will not hit the board in the Derby.

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Just a hunch or something, or do you have a case to make? There were plenty of other races run around one turn before, after, and between the two routes.

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

Do you have a copy of Beyer on Speed? If so turn turn to the Appendix. If you look at the Final times for the Bay Shore and Carter they match up a minus 17-18 against the chart. The Gazelle and Wood final times do not match up with the Fig Makers figs unless he was projecting.

If you look a page 141 of Picking Winners, the BSF graph has 9 furlong Aqueduct 1:50 1/5 at 115. 1:50 2/5 at 113.
The chart I am looking at is 38 years old. If the numbers were adjusted along the way they are only 1 -or + either way.

The Wood at 1:50.27 is a 115 raw number. The assigned number of 95 says it was a -20 variant.
The Gazelle at 1:50.53 is a 113 raw number. The assigned number of 85 says it was a -28 variant.

I am questioning the number of the Gazelle as much as the Wood. The pace of the Gazelle is more like a Derby pace than the Wood. At the same time I have serious doubts that Verrazano can be apart of a Gazelle like pace and have enough left to win the Derby or even hit the board.

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

[RockHardTen1985]

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Was Emollients number so big they are waiting to release it?

Emollient 97

[Alabama Stakes]

in the Wood at least they were running 24's after a half mile. the other race last 1/8 was 14. about 10 lengths slower than how they came home in the Wood

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Let me ask this a simpler way. Did the speed for the one turn races also change after the Gazelle, or at the least after the Wood. If they did, Beyer split the variant. If they didn't, he broke the race out as a judgement call.

Trust me, I don't need a refresher on figure making.

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

Honestly, I had not checked. I know now they did. I'll leave that for others to debate, been down that road too many times.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Honestly, I had not checked. I know now they did. I'll leave that for others to debate, been down that road too many times.

It's an ugly road.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

They broke out the Wood...but you already knew that.

Or, maybe you do need a refresher course?

I was going to send him my copy of Beyer on Speed. What am I going to do with it?

[Calzone Lord]

I think the last race on the card on Saturday at AQU would have got the exact same field, minus maybe Minescape and Smokin Hero, and possibly plus an extra plodding router or two if it had been carded at 9f instead of 8f.

It's a pet peeve of mine, and probably mine alone, but it's always a little easier to feel confident when you have an extra 2-turn dirt race to work with.

Had the Gazelle not been carded on this day, and with the weather like it was, I think it would have put people trying to gauge the fractions and final time in a trickier spot than they'd ideally want to be in.

I'm sure these are matters that a racing secretary couldn't care less about ... but I was struck by how incredibly rare standalone two turn dirt routes (or stakes run at standalone distances that day even) were on major racing days in the old days.

Even a race like the Belmont Stakes at a rarely run distance of 12f would usually have at least one companion race. They'd run a maiden race at 12f on dirt a lot of times on Belmont Stakes day. I don't know if that was just coincidence or what.

[Kasept]

AQU Wood Memorial S (G1): Verrazano 95 (More Than Ready) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
AQU Carter H (G1): Swagger Jack 105 (Smart Strike) M. Wolfson/I. Ortiz
AQU Ruffian H (G2): Withgreatpleasure 86 (Hold That Tiger) D. Nunn/J. Velazquez
AQU Gazelle S (G2): Close Hatches 88 (First Defence) W. Mott/J. Rosario
AQU Bay Shore S (G3): Declan's Warrior 97 (Majestic Warrior) N. Zito/J. Lezcano
AQU Fit to Fight S: Battier 88 (Tale of the Cat) P. Andrade/A. Castillo

SA Santa Anita Derby (G1): Goldencents 105 (Into Mischief) D. O'Neill/K. Krigger
SA Santa Anita Oaks (G1): Beholder 96 (Henny Hughes) R. Mandella/G. Gomez
SA Providencia S (G3): Scarlet Strike 80 (Smart Strike) J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano
SA Potrero Grande S (G2): Jimmy Creed 102 (Distorted Humor) R. Mandella/G. Gomez
SA Thunder Road S: Battle Force 91 (Giant's Causeway) J. Shirreffs/C. Nakatani
SA American Beauty S: I Dazzle -- (Hold That Tiger) J. Sadler/R. Bejarano

KEE Ashland S (G1): Emollient 97 (Empire Maker) W. Mott/M. Smith
KEE Transylvania S (G3): Jack Milton 88 (War Front) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

CRC Calder Derby: Sr. Quisqueyano 98 (Exclusive Quality) L. Olivares/C. Olivero

PIM Dahlia S: Embarr 87 (Royal Academy) S. Cooney/F. Boyce
PIM Mister Diz S: Ben's Cat 91 (Parker's Storm Cat) K. Leatherbury/J. Pimentel

OP Bachelor S: Officer Alex 93 (Officer) L. Whiting/A. Birzer

GG Golden Poppy S: Luscious Lonna -- (Benchmark) N. Sloan/J. Velazquez

TAM Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore S: City of Weston 89 (Holy Bull) A. Sano/P. Lopez
TAM Distaff Turf S: Hooh Why 88 (Cloud Hopping) R. Slomkowski/R. Allen
TAM Journeyman Stud Sophomore Turf S: Boy of Summer 77 (Exclusive Quality) R. Garcia/D. Centeno
TAM Besilu Stables Turf Classic S: Hobbs 87 (Put It Back) K. Mongeon/D. Centeno
TAM Hilton Garden/Hampton Inn Suites Sprint S: Wild About Chrome 84 (Indian Ocean) J. McCullough/R. Allen
TAM Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies S: Putitinmypocket 66 (Put It Back) W. Kaplan/J. Leyva