KEE SEPT SALE: DeDe Biles' Hips to Watch

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If you bought 18000 foals from 4 years of keeneland sales you would have a result that is indeed representitive of your post.

If you buy all the yealings listed in the spotlight you would be fortunate to win 4 G1 races in three years..Dont you agree? Do you really think 2 of these will win more then 2 G1 races in their careers?

When you sell 70% of the best breed TB's each year shouldn't at least as many be G1 winners?

My point, which is a good one, is most of these special foals will be frogs. These "special walks", "amazing character", "superior scope" stuff is beyond humorous.

How does Nick Zito find G1 winners for 100 to 300k and others find frog after frog at 1mil to 3 mi.. Has Besilu won a race yet with a yearling they purchased?

If you're asking how I would approach it with a bankroll, my own personal inclination would be for modest priced purchases with upside deeper in the catalog. With all the Monday Stakes recaps I do with connections, I'm always struck by how many 'inexpensive' horses win well.

The watch lists that Dede Biles, Glenye Cain Oakford and the TDN people compile are simply the most recognizable siblings, pedigrees and buzz horses. They're conversation starters offering points of reference out of the hundreds, and at KEE September, thousands of pages.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If you're asking how I would approach it with a bankroll, my own personal inclination would be for modest priced purchases with upside deeper in the catalog.

I think if you're buying at a yearling sale -- and your goal is the best possible long term ROI -- you have to go for the absolute sales topper type (if you can afford it) or just stay away from it.

That is unless you're someone who is setup to pinhook. Which is by far the best chance you have. Doing that you'd want precociously bred horses who can drill well in nine months from now.

It costs way too much to get a horse to the races to be fishing for modest priced purchases at yearling sales which have the odds way, way, way stacked against them.

The best chance for a buyer is at 2yo sales -- with modestly bred horses who work well unblinkered and sell in the $15,000 to $95,000 range. And those are hardly great investments, but you've got a good chance to win money with every single one of them if they can stay healthy...and a lot of times they don't stay healthy for very long.

However, the horses who don't perform well in the under-tack at 2yo's and have some breeding are sensational rip-offs! You'll see horses selling for $300,000 who you know have no shot of ever winning a maiden claiming race at a decent track.

[Kasept]

Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

Doug just proved that Book 1 is not the top end of the market. The top end of the market is random, completely fn random. Book 1 colts are a fairy tale which is plausible, book 1 fillies have a day in the sun after you come to the conclusion they suck.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Doug just proved that Book 1 is not the top end of the market. The top end of the market is random, completely fn random. Book 1 colts are a fairy tale which is plausible, book 1 fillies have a day in the sun after you come to the conclusion they suck.

Not sure what point you're addressing. Doug suggested that sales toppers ARE the place to play if you're buying yearlings.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not sure what point you're addressing. Doug suggested that sales toppers ARE the place to play if you're buying yearlings.

If you can't pinhook and don't have an entire operation in place to do that -- yes, buying the sales topper is far more likely to give you a better ROI than buying in the low to mid range.

[freddymo]

Those great walks, amazing individuals, sexy eye comments are better suited for carnival workers.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

Success in Book 1? Name the last 5 mil colt to win 500k never mind 5 mil. You have a better shot betting your pik 6's at SPA!! That's a joke Steve

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

Your man in Erie! The lotto whisperer! (Or was it scratch off whisperer? Or both..)

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Your man in Erie! The lotto whisperer! (Or was it scratch off whisperer? Or both..)

He hit a $20 scratch off lotto ticket for $1 million!

Sadly, he has just moved back in with his parents ... so the Erie rumor mill goes.

[joeydb]

At first I thought this said Kasept sale instead of "KEE SEPT SALE"

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

Its an interesting process watching someone look over a horse and the auction process in general. One particular pinhooker will have all of the horses in the barn quickly paraded in front of him until he sees something that fits the mold he has found success with. The consignors are familiar with the type of horse that a particular buyer typically buys and will seek that person out when they have a horse that fits.

Being in the area where the "hot horse" at the sale is always were the most entertainment comes from though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Its an interesting process watching someone look over a horse and the auction process in general. One particular pinhooker will have all of the horses in the barn quickly paraded in front of him until he sees something that fits the mold he has found success with. The consignors are familiar with the type of horse that a particular buyer typically buys and will seek that person out when they have a horse that fits.

Being in the area where the "hot horse" at the sale is always were the most entertainment comes from though.

People should hang out at a high minimum dice table.

You will find people there -- some of them successful businessman -- others God only knows how they found their money ... and they will say some of the most irrational stuff.

They think certain shooters can control the dice. They think certain shooters are better than other shooters. They talk about stuff like "hot dice" and "cold dice"

They seem to be oblivious to the randomness of it all.

Obviously there is a little more skill involved when it comes to the selection of yearlings than simply throwing dice ... but not a whole lot more.

Every dice shooter likes to talk about their 'big rolls' when they made 20 straight points, buckshot about half of them, and had floods of people coming to the table just to watch them shoot. They don't like to talk about their lifetime ROI throwing dice or the crippling losing streaks when they couldn't make a single pass 20 times in a row despite having almost a 50/50 chance each time.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

People should hang out at a high minimum dice table.

You will find people there -- some of them successful businessman -- others God only knows how they found their money ... and they will say some of the most irrational stuff.

They think certain shooters can control the dice. They think certain shooters are better than other shooters. They talk about stuff like "hot dice" and "cold dice"

They seem to be oblivious to the randomness of it all.

Obviously there is a little more skill involved when it comes to the selection of yearlings than simply throwing dice ... but not a whole lot more.

Every dice shooter likes to talk about their 'big rolls' when they made 20 straight points, buckshot about half of them, and had floods of people coming to the table just to watch them shoot. They don't like to talk about their lifetime ROI throwing dice or the crippling losing streaks when they couldn't make a single pass 20 times in a row despite having almost a 50/50 chance each time.

I usually hear some of the most humorous comments at the roulette wheel. After black or red has come up 3-4 times in a row, somebody will declare that the other color is 'due'. I would love to ask them.....why?....... and then hear their explanation. Each spin is a unique event and has nothing to do with the spin prior. How many people have thought they could just double their money by sticking with a color only to have it lose 5-6 (or more) times in a row and then leave muttering about their misfortune. It's always amazing to me how many gamblers don't understand odds and probabilities.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

KeeSept sale 04
Hip #1830
#2023

KeeSept sale 05
#92
#208
#1898
#880

FToct 04
#139
#815

This was a good plan.

I may have missed a few from 04. I remember a Forest wildcat filly that sucked but I cant find her.