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Old 09-10-2012, 08:31 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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If you bought every single one of these yearlings how many G1 wins would you have in 3 years? My guess is the under over would be 3.5 under minus 125.
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Old 09-10-2012, 09:12 AM
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If you bought every single one of these yearlings how many G1 wins would you have in 3 years? My guess is the under over would be 3.5 under minus 125.
Hips 27 and 130 should account for at least 10.
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Old 09-10-2012, 09:16 AM
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If you bought every single one of these yearlings how many G1 wins would you have in 3 years? My guess is the under over would be 3.5 under minus 125.
Here's a page from KEE website about Labor Day weekend stakes runners that were (mostly) September sales grads... You'd have to look up the hips to see which were Book 1/2 types.


SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

WOODWARD S. (G1), Saratoga, 1 1/8 Miles, 3YOs & Up

TRICKMEISTER, 5YO horse by Proud Citizen – Afternoon Trick ($95,000 RNA, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Brereton Jones/Airdrie Stud, agent) O- IEAH Stables, Pegasus Holding Group Stables & Mark Frimmel; B- Brereton Jones & Tim Thornton (KY); T- Richard Dutrow Jr.

STAY THIRSTY, 4YO colt by Bernardini – Marozia ($160,000, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Glennwood Farm, agent; Buyer- Whitehorse Stables) O- Repole Stables; B- John Gunther & John Darren Gunther (KY); T- Todd Pletcher

TO HONOR AND SERVE, 4YO colt by Bernardini – Pilfer ($250,000, 2008 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent, Buyer- Sommer Smith, agent; $575,000, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent, Buyer- Live Oak Plantation) O- Live Oak Plantation; B- Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer & Rancho San Miguel (KY); T- Bill Mott



FOREGO (G1), Saratoga, 7 Furlongs, 3YOs & Up

JERSEY TOWN, 6YO horse by Speightstown – Jersey Girl ($95,000 RNA, 2007 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Darby Dan Farm, agent; $170,000 RNA, 2008 April 2YO in Training, Consignor- McKathan Bros, agent) O/B- Charles Fipke (KY); T- Barclay Tagg

SHACKLEFORD, 4YO colt by Forestry – Oatsee ($275,000 RNA, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Belvedere Farm, agent) O- Michael Lauffer, W.D. Cubbedge & Phillips Racing Stable; B- Mike Lauffer & Bill Cubbedge (KY); T- Dale Romans

PACIFIC OCEAN, 5YO gelding by Ghostzapper – Miss Salsa ($300,000, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Paramount Sales, agent for Swordlestown Stud; Buyer- Ben Glass, agent) O- Dennis Narlinger; B- Swordlestown Stud (KY); T- Richard Dutrow Jr.

HAMAZING DESTINY, 6YO horse by Salt Lake – Ms Proud Destiny ($70,000, 2007 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Beau Lane Bloodstock, agent; Buyer- Hugh Robertson, agent for Barry Butzow) O- Barry Butzow & Westrock Stables; B- Destinaire Farm (KY); T- D. Wayne Lukas



DEL MAR DEBUTANTE (G1), Del Mar, 7 Furlongs, 2YOs

MISS EMPIRE, 2YO filly by Empire Maker – Miss Excitement ($85,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Gainesway, agent; Buyer- G. Ray Trisler & Mays Farm) O- Barber or Barber or Tsujihara; B- Dan Cassella & Frank Cassella (KY); T- P. Miller

SPEEDINTHRUTHECITY, 2YO filly by City Zip – License to Speed ($20,000 RNA, 2010 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent) O- Barber or Barber or Tsujihara; B- Joe Parker (KY); T- P. Miller

MECHAYA, 2YO filly by City Zip – Sago ($32,000 RNA, 2011 Jan Horses of All Ages, Consignor- Shannondoe Farm, agent) O- Doubledown Stables; B- James Everatt, Janeane Everatt & J. Arika Everatt-Meeuse (ON); T- John Sadler

EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE, 2YO filly by First Samurai – Refugee ($23,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Betz Thoroughbreds, agent; Buyer- Hubert Guy, agent) O- Karl Watson, Michael Pegram & Paul Weitman; B- Betz/DJ Stable/Kidder/J. Betz/Robenalt (KY); T- Bob Baffert

BEHOLDER, 2YO filly by Henny Hughes – Leslie’s Lady ($180,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Clarkland Farm; Buyer- Spendthrift Farm) O- Spendthrift Farm; B- Clarkland Farm (KY); T- Richard Mandella



BERNARD BARUCH H. (G2), Saratoga, 1 1/16 Miles (T), 3YOs & Up

CRIMSON CHINA, 4YO colt by Giant’s Causeway – Parisian Affair ($120,000 RNA, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Paramount Sales, agent) O- Team Valor International; B- Plantation Stud/Silver Springs Stud Farm (KY); T- H. Graham Motion

DOMINUS, 4YO ridgling by Smart Strike – Cuando ($270,000 RNA, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Eaton Sales, agent) O- George Bolton, Stonestreet Stables & Spendthrift Farm; B- Edward P. Evans (VA); T- Todd Pletcher

GUYS REWARD, 5YO horse by Grand Reward – Beach View ($14,000 RNA, 2007 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Legacy Bloodstock, agent; $27,000 RNA, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Carmichael Sales, agent) O- Michael Bruder; B- Haymarket Farm (KY); T- Dale Romans

ALMA D’ORO, 6YO horse by Medaglia d’Oro – Brenda D S ($75,000, 2006 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Glennwood Farm, agent; Buyer- Gary Stevens, agent for Mary Ellen Bourque) O- Bourque Goldstein Thoroughbreds; B- Fred Sahadi (KY): T- Todd Pletcher



WASHINGTON PARK H. (G3), Arlington, 1 1/8 Miles, 3YOs & Up

MIDDIE, 4YO gelding by Officer – Sweettrickydancer ($45,000 RNA, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Eaton Sales, agent) O- G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & St. George Farm Racing; B- St. George Farm (KY); T- P. Oliver

HATTAASH, 5YO gelding by Strong Hope – Lotta Rhythm ($290,000, 2007 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- James Keogh/Grovendale, agent; Buyer- Shadwell Estate Company) O- KFCB; B- Dolphus Morrison (KY); T- C. Bettis

PRAYER FOR RELIEF, 4YO colt by Jump Start – Sparklin Lil ($39,000 RNA, 2008 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- War Horse Place; $80,000, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Legacy Bloodstock, agent, Buyer- Zayat Stables) O- Zayat Stables; B- G.R. Aschinger (KY); T- Steve Asmussen

POOL PLAY, 7YO horse by Silver Deputy – Zuri Ridge ($60,000, 2005 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Windfields Farm, agent, Buyer- Aspiration Stud; $625,000, 2006 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Gracefield, Buyer- Geathers Racing Stable; $180,000, 2008 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- WinStar Racing, agent, Buyer- Bill Farish) O- William S. Farish Jr.; B- Windfields Farm (ON); T- Mark Casse



SEAWAY S. (G3), Woodbine, 7 Furlongs, 3YOs & Up, F&M

ZERMATT, 5YO mare by Tiznow – Sisti’s Pride ($340,000, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent for Aaron & Marie Jones; Buyer- Blue Heaven Farm) O- Blue Heaven Farm; B- Aaron & Marie Jones (KY); T- Todd Pletcher

GOLD DUST LADY, 5YO mare by Chapel Royal – Papier Mache ($37,000, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Flying High Farm – DRE Bloodstock, agent) O- Carlo D’Amato; B- Flying High Farm (KY); T- W. Wilcox



CLIFF HANGER S. (G3), Monmouth, 1 Mile (T), 3YOs & Up

GLASS ART, 4YO gelding by Hennessy – Yard Art ($47,000 RNA, 2010 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- WinStar Racing, agent) O- Red Oak Stable; B- Glencrest Farm (KY); T- G. Sacco

UPGRADE, 5YO gelding by Saint Liam – Emily Ring ($170,000, 2008 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Lane’s End, agent; Buyer- Ben Glass, agent) O- Dennis Narlinger; B- Mike Anderson Thoroughbreds (KY); T- Michelle Nihei



SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

SPINAWAY S. (G1), Saratoga, 7 Furlongs, 2YO Fillies

SWEET SHIRLEY MAE, 2YO filly by Broken Vow – Joyful Chaos ($60,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Longfield Farm, agent; Buyer- Cromwell Bloodstock, agent) O- Ice Wine Stable; B- Lewis Schaffel (KY); T- Wesley Ward



DEL MAR DERBY (G2), Del Mar, 1 1/8 Miles (T), 3YOs

ALL SQUARED AWAY, 3YO gelding by Bellamy Road – Squared ($3,000, 2009 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Indian Creek, agent; Buyer- Mikhail Yanakov) O- Brous Stable & Wachtel Stable; B- Gracefield Breeders (KY); T- P. Miller

MY BEST BROTHER, 3YO colt by Stormy Atlantic – Wilshewed ($95,000 RNA, 2009 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Valkyre Stud, agent) O- Currin or Eisman; B- Al Eisman & William Currin (KY); T- Julio Canani



SARANAC S. (G3), Saratoga, 1 1/8 Miles (T), 3YOs

EXCAPER, 3YO colt by Exchange Rate – Ada Ruckus ($30,000 RNA, 2010 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Castle Park Farm, agent) O- Richard Kaster & Frederick Wieting; B – Richard & Nancy Kaster (KY); T- Ian Black

QUICK WIT, 3YO colt by Sharp Humor – Thanks the Academy ($32,000, 2011 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- WinStar Racing, agent; Buyer- Dale Romans, agent) O- Michael Bruder; B- WinStar Farm (KY); T- Dale Romans

SET THE SAIL, 3YO colt by Mizzen Mast – Tartufi ($34,000 RNA, 2010 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Eaton Sales, agent) O/B- Elisabeth Alexander (KY); T- Charles Lopresti



SAPLING S. (G3), Monmouth, 6 Furlongs, 2YOs

BOBCAT JIM, 2YO colt by Sharp Humor – Glimmer ($165,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent; Buyer- DWF) O- Dream Walkin Farms; B- WinStar Farm (KY); T- K. Smith

OVERANALYZE, 2YO colt by Dixie Union – Unacloud ($380,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent; Buyer- Repole Stables) O- Repole Stables; B- Diamond A. Racing Corp (KY); T- Todd Pletcher

SPECIAL JO, 2YO colt by Johannesburg – Quiet City ($40,000, 2010 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Nardelli Sales, agent; Buyer- Albert Davis) O- Mike McCarty; B- John Clarke, Kim & Rodney Nardelli (KY); T- Steve Asmussen



MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 3



THREE CHIMNEYS HOPEFUL S. (G2), Saratoga, 7 Furlongs, 2YOs

SHOW SOME MAGIC, 2YO colt by Any Given Saturday – Whirlwind Charlott ($70,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Woodford Thoroughbreds; Buyer- Kirk Robison) O- Kirk & Judy Robison; B- Woodford Thoroughbreds (KY); T- Steve Asmussen

BERN IDENTITY, 2YO colt by Bernstein – Maddalena ($43,000, 2011 Jan Horses of All Ages, Consignor- Paramount Sales, agent, Buyer- Dundrum Farm; $75,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Hunter Valley Farm, agent, Buyer- George & Lori Hall) O- George & Lori Hall; B- Galleria Bloodstock, Crosshaven Bloodstock, Petaluma Bloodstock, et al (KY); T- Kelly Breen

ROYAL ART, 2YO colt by Afleet Alex – Prall Street ($410,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- James Herbener Jr., agent; Buyer- Robert Baker) O- Robert Baker & William Mack; B- William Graves & Dennis Lynch (KY); T- D. Wayne Lukas

OVERANALYZE, 2YO colt by Dixie Union – Unacloud ($380,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent; Buyer- Repole Stables) O- Repole Stables; B- Diamond A. Racing Corp (KY); T- Todd Pletcher

VEGAS NO SHOW, 2YO colt by Hard Spun – The Hess Express ($105,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- James Herbener Jr.; Buyer- George & Lori Hall) O- George & Lori Hall; B- Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY); T- Kelly Breen

SHANGHAI BOBBY, 2YO colt by Harlan’s Holiday – Steelin’ ($105,000, 2011 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Stonehaven Steadings; Buyer- Starlight) O- Starlight Racing; B- Stonehaven Steadings (KY); T- Todd Pletcher



YELLOW RIBBON H. (G2), Del Mar, 1 1/16 Miles (T), 3YOs & Up, F&M

COSSET, 5YO mare by Mizzen Mast – Corsini (GB) ($7,000, 2011 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Mill Ridge Sales, agent; Buyer- Elliot Mavorah) O- Brave MBA Stable; B- Juddmonte Farms (KY); T- H. Palma

CITY TO CITY, 5YO mare by City Zip – Stormbow ($15,000, 2007 Nov Breeding Stock, Consignor- Legacy Bloodstock, agent; Buyer- Ronald Hagen) O- DeBurgh or Hollendorfer or DeDominico; B- Dr. Michael Cavey Jr. (KY); T- Jerry Hollendorfer



GLEN FALLS H. (G3), Saratoga, 1 3/8 Miles (T), 3YOs & Up, F&M

CASH FOR CLUNKERS, 4YO filly by Tiznow – Miss Dixie Dreamer ($25,000, 2009 Sept Yearling, Consignor- Mineola Farm, agent; Buyer- Hartley/De Renzo) O- Klaravich Stables & William Lawrence; B- Mineola Farm, Jim Geisler & David Houchin (KY); T- Richard Violette Jr.
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Old 09-10-2012, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
If you bought every single one of these yearlings how many G1 wins would you have in 3 years? My guess is the under over would be 3.5 under minus 125.
Here's Stakes winning grads..
http://flex.keeneland.com/grads/grads.html
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Old 09-10-2012, 10:11 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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If you bought 18000 foals from 4 years of keeneland sales you would have a result that is indeed representitive of your post.

If you buy all the yealings listed in the spotlight you would be fortunate to win 4 G1 races in three years..Dont you agree? Do you really think 2 of these will win more then 2 G1 races in their careers?

When you sell 70% of the best breed TB's each year shouldn't at least as many be G1 winners?

My point, which is a good one, is most of these special foals will be frogs. These "special walks", "amazing character", "superior scope" stuff is beyond humorous.

How does Nick Zito find G1 winners for 100 to 300k and others find frog after frog at 1mil to 3 mi.. Has Besilu won a race yet with a yearling they purchased?
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
These "special walks", "amazing character", "superior scope" stuff is beyond humorous.
This is one of my favorites ones so far ...

Quote:
“He’s got the strength of the Storm Cat line with stretch,” said Legacy’s Tommy Eastham of this dark bay or brown yearling, whose dam was a stakes winner. “He’s a great mover by an exciting young sire. This horse has a high energy level. He’ll show himself great at seven o’clock in the morning, and he’ll do the same at seven o’clock at night.”

Two years later ...

"Was found in a livestock auction in Sherman, NY.. after being purchased from a similar auction in Meadville PA.. Purchased for $525 by C. Leason with intentions for eventual light riding."
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:18 AM
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Great stuff
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:24 AM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Holy shiite.
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:25 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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It is great stuff....but at the expense of stating the obvious, what are these people supposed to say?

"The horse looks like crap and we're just hoping someone is dumb enough to overspend on him based on our adjectives so we can further line our pockets and screw more people over."

Lots of dumb people with a lot of money burning holes in their pockets who eat that stuff up.
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
If you bought 18000 foals from 4 years of keeneland sales you would have a result that is indeed representitive of your post.

If you buy all the yealings listed in the spotlight you would be fortunate to win 4 G1 races in three years..Dont you agree? Do you really think 2 of these will win more then 2 G1 races in their careers?

When you sell 70% of the best breed TB's each year shouldn't at least as many be G1 winners?

My point, which is a good one, is most of these special foals will be frogs. These "special walks", "amazing character", "superior scope" stuff is beyond humorous.

How does Nick Zito find G1 winners for 100 to 300k and others find frog after frog at 1mil to 3 mi.. Has Besilu won a race yet with a yearling they purchased?
If you're asking how I would approach it with a bankroll, my own personal inclination would be for modest priced purchases with upside deeper in the catalog. With all the Monday Stakes recaps I do with connections, I'm always struck by how many 'inexpensive' horses win well.

The watch lists that Dede Biles, Glenye Cain Oakford and the TDN people compile are simply the most recognizable siblings, pedigrees and buzz horses. They're conversation starters offering points of reference out of the hundreds, and at KEE September, thousands of pages.
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:15 PM
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If you're asking how I would approach it with a bankroll, my own personal inclination would be for modest priced purchases with upside deeper in the catalog.
I think if you're buying at a yearling sale -- and your goal is the best possible long term ROI -- you have to go for the absolute sales topper type (if you can afford it) or just stay away from it.

That is unless you're someone who is setup to pinhook. Which is by far the best chance you have. Doing that you'd want precociously bred horses who can drill well in nine months from now.

It costs way too much to get a horse to the races to be fishing for modest priced purchases at yearling sales which have the odds way, way, way stacked against them.

The best chance for a buyer is at 2yo sales -- with modestly bred horses who work well unblinkered and sell in the $15,000 to $95,000 range. And those are hardly great investments, but you've got a good chance to win money with every single one of them if they can stay healthy...and a lot of times they don't stay healthy for very long.

However, the horses who don't perform well in the under-tack at 2yo's and have some breeding are sensational rip-offs! You'll see horses selling for $300,000 who you know have no shot of ever winning a maiden claiming race at a decent track.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:28 PM
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Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:53 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.
Doug just proved that Book 1 is not the top end of the market. The top end of the market is random, completely fn random. Book 1 colts are a fairy tale which is plausible, book 1 fillies have a day in the sun after you come to the conclusion they suck.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:56 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.
Success in Book 1? Name the last 5 mil colt to win 500k never mind 5 mil. You have a better shot betting your pik 6's at SPA!! That's a joke Steve
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:22 PM
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There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.

There are success stories with some of the people who buy lottery tickets as well.

A lot of people who are given credit as having a shrewd eye for a horse are completely full of crap. Just listen to some of them talk and it's pretty apparent they are basically wanna-be psychics who know almost nothing about horse racing but are skilled enough at fooling the right kind of people.

Walter Vosburgh wrote a funny piece about a guy who was considered one of the most brilliant buyers of his day -- and he was completely ignorant to all the points of a horse and to pedigree.

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Old 09-10-2012, 11:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Only the biggest players can operate at the top end of that yearling market. There are workable plans no matter where you are on the budget scale. Depends on who you are working with too, don't you think? There are success stories taking any and every approach whether yearling or 2yo-in-training including those that have great track records picking out projectable yearlings at middle of the road prices and those buying nice bargains at a place like the Timonium sale.
KeeSept sale 04
Hip #1830
#2023

KeeSept sale 05
#92
#208
#1898
#880

FToct 04
#139
#815

This was a good plan.

I may have missed a few from 04. I remember a Forest wildcat filly that sucked but I cant find her.
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