8/1 (SAR): $239k C/O -- Discussion/Contest

GPK · #1 07-31-2012, 06:03 PM

I love So Scott in the 6th tomorrow. If Junior can work out a trip from the 8 hole, I think he has a big shot and may get overlooked, tool.

pmacdaddy · #2 07-31-2012, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I love So Scott in the 6th tomorrow. If Junior can work out a trip from the 8 hole, I think he has a big shot and may get overlooked, tool.

I'm with ya. I'm a big Hushion fan, but his Turf numbers always give me a little pause. Think I will likely hang my hat 3,9 there if I try a ticket.

Stay narrow and cover in pick 4 if I can survive the 5th and 6th.

I will also include Springcourt in the finale.

Anyone have strong opinions in the 5th?

GPK · #3 07-31-2012, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I'm with ya. I'm a big Hushion fan, but his Turf numbers always give me a little pause. Think I will likely hang my hat 3,9 there if I try a ticket.

Stay narrow and cover in pick 4 if I can survive the 5th and 6th.

I will also include Springcourt in the finale.

Anyone have strong opinions in the 5th?

Not a real strong opinion, but it looks like 4 and 7 to me.

ateamstupid · #4 07-31-2012, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I'm with ya. I'm a big Hushion fan, but his Turf numbers always give me a little pause. Think I will likely hang my hat 3,9 there if I try a ticket.

Stay narrow and cover in pick 4 if I can survive the 5th and 6th.

I will also include Springcourt in the finale.

Anyone have strong opinions in the 5th?

pmac,

I was impressed by Girluphigh's debut, as she had a much tougher trip that day than the winner. She didn't break all that well, was sent three-wide after the top two on the turn, drifted wider when Ward's horse came out a bit, got bumped off stride when the two came in contact and still dug in to get the place. Can't Explain, who had everything her own way, came back to run pretty well in the Schuylerville when faced with a tougher pace scenario. I remember being intrigued that Castellano, who rode pretty much every Pletcher baby at Belmont once Velazquez got hurt, was on her instead of CE in there. She should be tough to beat for Goldberg, whose horses always seem to fire in NY. Unless someone gets bet off the board, I may try to get away with singling her.

Pletcher's FTS will probably take a lot of money based on the :59 and change gate bullet last week, but the fact that she only has four published works since May 25 makes her a shaky favorite IMO. It's not typical of Pletcher to have huge gaps in his 2-year-olds' work patterns. Liquid Lunch was tearing it up in the mornings before her debut, but did no running against a poor group of maidens at CD. Only possible excuse for her being that bad was a bleeding issue. I wish Korat hadn't drawn the rail, because that July 23 half-mile breeze is pretty quick for an Albertrani 2-year-old and supposedly she can run some.

dpkovalesky · #5 07-31-2012, 08:00 PM

will the 1 in the 7th forget to stop? who else is going to go with her early?

ateamstupid · #6 07-31-2012, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

will the 1 in the 7th forget to stop? who else is going to go with her early?

Was thinking the same thing. Only one who could conceivably run with her is the 10, but that's no lock with her trying turf for the first time and breaking from the far outside. Stay Composed has dirtied up form and will be really tough to catch from the rail on the cutback if she gets anything close to a breather early.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #7 07-31-2012, 08:08 PM

my opinion is to stay alive.. using 3-8 in the first leg is one way to do it.many of these have prior races..yes pleacher can dust them .but are willing to lose any chance over babys that can do anything..

pmacdaddy · #8 07-31-2012, 08:23 PM

What's the Turf work on 7/9 for the Goldberg runner mean? Nothing?

ADJMK · #9 08-01-2012, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

will the 1 in the 7th forget to stop? who else is going to go with her early?

If she would relax on the lead she could steal but have a feeling the #10 will be right at her flank and willing to take a shot the #10 takes to the turf at juicy odds.

golfer · #10 08-01-2012, 07:04 AM

I think Gimme Credit is a must use in the 6th. Although the old guy may have lost a step, and may need more time to get going, I thought he ran quite well in his last, and I think with the time off, he will be ready to run his best today.

I also think Stay Composed is very dangerous in the 7th as lone speed and cutting back just a bit to 5.5.

My contest ticket (pre scratches):

3,4,7

1,3,

1,3,5

1,3,7

1,3,4,5

2,3,6,10

$1728

lemoncrush · #11 07-31-2012, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I'm with ya. I'm a big Hushion fan, but his Turf numbers always give me a little pause. Think I will likely hang my hat 3,9 there if I try a ticket.

Stay narrow and cover in pick 4 if I can survive the 5th and 6th.

I will also include Springcourt in the finale.

Anyone have strong opinions in the 5th?

So Scotty is my pick in the race, but would like opinions on the 1, Gimme Credit. Chad Brown claims a 9-year old gelding and then waits 2 months to bring him back at the same level. His races last spring in 2011 at Belmont would crush these, but i don't know If he's capable of those efforts again. Would love to just cover the 3 and 9 here.

ateamstupid · #12 07-31-2012, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I think that race is very wide open. Any number of them can win, IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

So Scotty is my pick in the race, but would like opinions on the 1, Gimme Credit. Chad Brown claims a 9-year old gelding and then waits 2 months to bring him back at the same level. His races last spring in 2011 at Belmont would crush these, but i don't know If he's capable of those efforts again. Would love to just cover the 3 and 9 here.

Ampersand is very much the horse to beat. He only beat Modern Child by a length in that last race, but the gulf between the two efforts was way bigger. Ampersand was the only horse to close any ground in the stretch and was completely up against it from a pace standpoint. My main concern is he looks like he has a little hang in him, as he had every chance to pass the winner in his last two and couldn't do it either time. Gimme Credit is clearly not the horse he once was, but it's not like his recent races are awful. Toss the turf sprint since that's clearly not his game and he fits with these. The way Chad Brown is going, I wouldn't question any move he makes. For me it's the 3 as an A and the 1 and 4 as B's.

pointman · #13 07-31-2012, 10:41 PM

I like Dr. Disco who is working like he is going to fire a big one to have a shot at a big price to upset the Morrissey.

Dahoss · #14 07-31-2012, 10:47 PM

I can't add anything to what Ateam said about Girluphigh, because I like her also. But I am going to be keeping an eye on how Zazz runs because I am interested in her when she gets to the turf.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #15 07-31-2012, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Ampersand is very much the horse to beat. He only beat Modern Child by a length in that last race, but the gulf between the two efforts was way bigger. Ampersand was the only horse to close any ground in the stretch and was completely up against it from a pace standpoint. My main concern is he looks like he has a little hang in him, as he had every chance to pass the winner in his last two and couldn't do it either time. Gimme Credit is clearly not the horse he once was, but it's not like his recent races are awful. Toss the turf sprint since that's clearly not his game and he fits with these. The way Chad Brown is going, I wouldn't question any move he makes. For me it's the 3 as an A and the 1 and 4 as B's.

he does cut back to a mile witch hes never won at..i think he loses by not closing fast enough.

asudevil · #16 08-01-2012, 01:06 AM

To me it seems like the first and last legs are by far the most challenging. How much credence do you all put into the odds board, before the 5th, when constructing your tickets?

ADJMK · #17 08-01-2012, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil

To me it seems like the first and last legs are by far the most challenging. How much credence do you all put into the odds board, before the 5th, when constructing your tickets?

Board is going to be very important to see how alive any of the firsters are.Pletcher is going to get bet but am wary of the light worktab. Leaning to the Goldberg but am concerned that the Bris form shows he is only 6% out of 53 2nd career starters.

pointman · #18 07-31-2012, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I love So Scott in the 6th tomorrow. If Junior can work out a trip from the 8 hole, I think he has a big shot and may get overlooked, tool.

I might be crazy, but I think Runaway Jim has a shot in this race and will be a huge overlay. I will have to take a flyer to win on him.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #19 07-31-2012, 11:27 PM

my longshot is mine over matter..though i think the 1 is going to roll.. the 3 is bs to me..everytime he faces good horses he gets crushed..im not buying the work tab at all.. 1/5/9..

ADJMK · #20 08-01-2012, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

I might be crazy, but I think Runaway Jim has a shot in this race and will be a huge overlay. I will have to take a flyer to win on him.

I like him too. 3rd off the layoff, dropping back vs Ny breds,great tightner in last, won at the Spa last August and will be right up on the pace in a race that doesn't look to have a lot of pace.
Going vs Ampersand to run his 4th good race in a row.
Have to respect Gimme Credit as Chad has had the horse before and gotten him to the winner circle. Steady string of works since claim have him pointed to this spot with a $69,000 purse.
Also should include So Scott as he never runs a bad race and has had only 2 chances on the turf.
1,6,9 for me in a race that gets more diffiicult each time I look at it.