Whole lotta cheating go in on!

[Calzone Lord]

This is Glitterman as a broodmare sire with debuters going back as far as I can go:

2012: Zero for the year
2011: 4-for-46 (9%) $0.75 ROI
2010: 3-for-52 (6%) $0.75 ROI
2009: 3-for-50 (6%) $0.65 ROI
2008: 2-for-46 (4%) $0.39 ROI
2007: 1-for-37 (3%) $0.14 ROI

If you want an edge with maiden races -- you have to be willing to spend nights and nights studying to get that edge and you have to work on figuring out how to best apply your information.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Newsflash for those looking for "cheating"
In general you should look for prices that paid less than they should not more. Like the time when I was working at Yonkers when the exacta in a race came back less than the 1st place finisher did to win.

The Hill... where when you win, you lose..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ellpol

Todays fifth race at Saratoga proves again that the game I love to play has a whole lotta cheatin go in on!

"Bad horses win bad races..."

Andy Serling

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Newsflash for those looking for "cheating"
In general you should look for prices that paid less than they should not more. Like the time when I was working at Yonkers when the exacta in a race came back less than the 1st place finisher did to win.

NickOwompous Leroy over MR AAA?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

"Bad horses win bad races..."

Andy Serling

so true. i've looked at races before (delta downs most recently) and told my husband 'they're all pigs'. but somebody has to win. have made out well iin those races many times. a lot of people will jump on a horse with seconditis, figuring it's finally going to win-no, it'll probably finish second again.

[Calzone Lord]

I went back and looked up the past performances for Balto Star.

Probably the most unique thing about him was that he was 13/1 in an Inner Track MSW race at AQU, 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 8/1 in the Breeders Cup Mile, ALL IN THE SAME YEAR!

That will obviously never happen again even if the AQU Inner survives for another five hundred years.


Here is what Balto Star's Thoro-Graph figures looked like going into the Derby:





He improved 27 Thoro-Graph points in less than 7 months from his debut until the Arkansas Derby.

He made 3 starts as a 2-year-old -- and the best Beyer he had in those three starts was just a 56. He ran a 112 Beyer in his win in the Spiral at Turfway. Literally double his top 2yo figure.

7-time Graded Stakes winner, earner of over $2.3 million, and it took him 4 starts to run a Beyer better than 56.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I went back and looked up the past performances for Balto Star.

Probably the most unique thing about him was that he was 13/1 in an Inner Track MSW race at AQU, 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 8/1 in the Breeders Cup Mile, ALL IN THE SAME YEAR!

That will obviously never happen again even if the AQU Inner survives for another five hundred years.


Here is what Balto Star's Thoro-Graph figures looked like going into the Derby:





He improved 27 Thoro-Graph points in less than 7 months from his debut until the Arkansas Derby.

He made 3 starts as a 2-year-old -- and the best Beyer he had in those three starts was just a 56. He ran a 112 Beyer in his win in the Spiral at Turfway. Literally double his top 2yo figure.

7-time Graded Stakes winner, earner of over $2.3 million, and it took him 4 starts to run a Beyer better than 56.

we'd rarely see a .75 TG = 112 bsf these days ...realizing of course that it's apples and oranges, but the divergence here is astronomical

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

we'd rarely see a .75 TG = 112 bsf these days ...realizing of course that it's apples and oranges, but the divergence here is astronomical

Yep. Balto Star was killer fast on Thoro-Graph's in the winter of his 3yo season.

By comparison Tiznow won the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic with a 0 and he won the 2001 Santa Anita Handicap by five lengths with a 0 as well.

Basically -- March of 2001 -- the best older horse in the country, Tiznow is 0.00 on TG while winning the Big Cap by 5 lengths and Balto Star is 0.75 winning the 600K Spiral by 12.75 lengths at 6/1 odds.

They gelded him after his terrible debut. He reportedly tried to mount the lead pony.

Almost a year ago to the day, Balto Star didn't seem as if he'd amount to much, finishing fourth in a mile-and-an-eighth maiden race over Aqueduct's main track. It was his third out-of-the-money finish in as many starts, and his frustrated connections were ready to drop Balto Star, who'd been gelded months before after trying to mount his lead pony, into a maiden claimer.

But Pletcher gave him one more chance, on New Year's Day going two turns over the inner dirt track. Suddenly deciding he was a racehorse after all, Balto Star romped by 11 lengths.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Hill... where when you win, you lose..

I think Jimmy Marohn got 3 months from Yonkers for this one

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I went back and looked up the past performances for Balto Star.

Probably the most unique thing about him was that he was 13/1 in an Inner Track MSW race at AQU, 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 8/1 in the Breeders Cup Mile, ALL IN THE SAME YEAR!

That will obviously never happen again even if the AQU Inner survives for another five hundred years.


Here is what Balto Star's Thoro-Graph figures looked like going into the Derby:





He improved 27 Thoro-Graph points in less than 7 months from his debut until the Arkansas Derby.

He made 3 starts as a 2-year-old -- and the best Beyer he had in those three starts was just a 56. He ran a 112 Beyer in his win in the Spiral at Turfway. Literally double his top 2yo figure.

7-time Graded Stakes winner, earner of over $2.3 million, and it took him 4 starts to run a Beyer better than 56.

Was that big jump from 10 to 3 the first time he was put on the lead while going long?

Maybe it just took them some time to figure out what he really liked?

Didn't Lava Man have a similar type improvement and circumstances (on lead going long)?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Was that big jump from 10 to 3 the first time he was put on the lead while going long?

Maybe it just took them some time to figure out what he really liked?

Didn't Lava Man have a similar type improvement and circumstances (on lead going long)?

Lava Man had plenty of speed, but certainly wasn't a need-the-lead type.



Lava Man...YES!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Was that big jump from 10 to 3 the first time he was put on the lead while going long?

Maybe it just took them some time to figure out what he really liked?

Didn't Lava Man have a similar type improvement and circumstances (on lead going long)?

No, Balto Star was on the lead for his 3rd career start and he faded to 4th.

When Balto Star broke his maiden by 11 lengths at 13/1 odds on the Inner Track in start #4 -- he was rated off of the lead.


Lava Man was a consistant horse for Lonnie Arterburn. The instant Doug O' Neill claimed him, he moved up dramtic way.

Lava Man was not a front-end horse for O'Neill. He didn't go to the early lead for O'Neill until his 12th start for him in the Pacific Classic, where he finished 3rd under P. Val. Lava Man was a stalker/presser type in his prime.

In Lava Man's case, it was obviously the trainer switch. In Balto Star's case, he just didn't show up at all and turned in non-efforts the first 3 times he raced.