I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Charismatic1]

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires.

He will most likely be standing for $7,500 when his first crop are 5-year-olds.

Overdriven will stand for $7,500 in his first crop -- and will almost certainly be a much better stallion despite having a harder road initially.

Take Charge Indy is A. P. Indy-Take Charge Lady and won his debut sprinting and had a much better 2-year-old season for now hapless trainer Pay Byrne.

Algorithams is an undefeated son of Bernardini who won at a mile with a 5 length win over Hansen and earned a big figure last out.

Fed Biz cost $950,000 as a yearling and is a speedier router than I'll Have Another. He beat Blueskiesandrainbows by 12.5 lengths in his last start -- and that one was 3rd by a half length to I'll Have Another at 9 furlongs in the SA Derby.

I'll Have Another has never separated himself as a top performer at any distance of 9fs or less.

That's obviously important for a top stallion prospect because 99.5% of all races are at less than 9f -- and it worrisome because of the short comings of his 2yo campaign, the short comings of his pedigree, and the short comings of his lack of success in auction rings. It's also not encouraging that he's trained by an alchemist.

If you pay $70 million for him solely because he was able to wear down Bodemeister (a horse with no 2yo foundation) twice after 9 furlongs --- what does that make Bode worth considering he has a way more fashionable pedigree and superior raw speed?

Sunday Silence was by a sire who threw about ten different Grade 1 winners and multiple champions. Sunday Silence was out of a dam who was a multiple Graded Stakes winning race mare. Flower Alley stands for $7,500. Why wouldn't he suddenly become worth a fortune as well?

[Charismatic1]

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

[Charismatic1]

As for Flower Alley, Elusive Quality was about $10-15k when Smarty Jones hit it big for him. Now, he is $50k, was up to $100k. Who's to say the same boost won't happen for Flower Alley? We know his fee will go up. Breeders will take another look at him, too.

I've never heard "he was a great two-turn horse up to 9 furlongs, must breed to him." Unless he wins a big one-turn mile race, that whole raw speed argument for Bodemeister is irrelevant. Breeders drool over champion milers and Classic winners (including BC Classic). If the horse has a flashy pedigree, they drool an even bigger mess. Despite the criticism, I do still think Bode can be a very good stallion. He'll have every opportunity. His speed may end up being a tiebreaker when breeders consider him versus five or six other comparably priced stallions, but that's the difference - I'll Have Another will be a group of 1 if he wins the Triple Crown.

[Calzone Lord]

Tiznow was a two time Breeders Cup Classic winner who had a brother finish 2nd in the BC Classic. His dam dropped 4 stakes winners. He was a very good performer and ran a 119 Beyer in the Goodwood at 9 furlongs as a 3-year-old.

Tapit's dam was a sister to champion sprinter Rubiano.

A $75,000 stud fee for I'll Have Another is insanity. There are 10 to 15 horses from this crop who will make better stallions. He's an OBS cheapie like Silver Charm and Skip Away.

[slotdirt]

I'm interested in hearing about the stallion prospects of other OBS sales grads of recent vintage like Flat Out, Giant Ryan, Aikenite, and Midnight Lute.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm interested in hearing about the stallion prospects of other OBS sales grads of recent vintage like Flat Out, Giant Ryan, Aikenite, and Midnight Lute.

I don't like the chances of any of them.

The dam of Aikenite was a real runner:




Aikenite was the Lebron James of the OBS 2-year-old sales in 2009. He worked a sales best quarter mile in 20.40 and had an absolutely huge stride.

He only sold for $225,000 -- but when you consider he was sired by Yes It's True and his dam was that rat pictured above ... you could better understand why.

Hard to believe he paid $15.40 when he won his debut at Saratoga -- and Serling even relayed all of the info before the race.

Aikenite made 866K and was a multiple Graded Stakes winner, 4th in last years BC Sprint. However, his one major flaw that was not apparent at OBS was his lack of gate speed and slowness into stride.

They get a run-up start at OBS -- and hit peak speed at the start of the work. If Aikenite had gate speed -- he would have been Fabulous Strike 2.0

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are 10 to 15 horses from this crop who will make better stallions. He's an OBS cheapie.

You may be correct, but my question is how much does the fact that he actually worked well at the sale and then led gate-to-wire in his debut going 5.5f in July of his 2yo year alleviate some of the concerns raised by the fact that he was an "OBS cheapie?" You mentioned Skip Away as a comparison but (unlike IHA) Skip Away was pretty useless in his sprint tries as a 2yo. He didn't do anything until they stretched him out to 8f, and he really wasn't much of a horse until they stretched him out to 9f.
If a slower-developing colt with limited speed won the TC, it would obviously be a bad sign for his success as a sire regardless of his racetrack accomplishments. But does IHA really fit that bill?

[Calzone Lord]

Past major Grade 1 winning males from OBS 2-year-old sales:

Lil E Tee (Kentucky Derby winner)

Favorite Trick (Horse of the year 2yo)

Skip Away (Hall of Famer)

Silver Charm (Hall of Famer)

Marlin (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Buck's Boy (Breeders Cup Turf)

Precocity (Grade 1 winner)

Val's Prince (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Yankee Victor (Met Mile winner)

City Zip and Flame Thrower (Best 2yo sprinters of season - Flame Thrower repeatedly beat Street Cry and City Zip swept all 3 Graded Stakes for 2yos at Saratoga)

Swept Overboard (Multiple Grade 1 winner - Met Mile winner)

Delaware Township (Top class Grade 1 winning sprinter)

Outofthebox (Grade 1 winner -- solid message board poster)

D'Wildcat (Grade 1 winning sprinter)

Booklet (Grade 1 winner)

Peace Rules (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Southern Image (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Kitten's Joy (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Proud Accolade (Grade 1 winner)

Nothing to Lose (Grade 1 winner)

Roses In May (Dubai World Cup winner, 2nd in BC Classic)

Lost In The Fog (Grade 1 winner)

Bellamy Road (Grade 1 winner and KY Derby favorite)

Buzzards Bay (Grade 1 winner)

Captain Squire (Grade 1 winner)

Premium Tap (Grade 1 winner)

Midnight Lute (Back to Back Breeders Cup Sprint winner)

Flashy Bull (Grade 1 winner)

The rest are all 2008 or recent.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

I'll Have Another has a career to finish, but in today's stallion market, I have a hard time seeing him above $50,000, even if he were to win the Belmont. He might be somehat comparable to a Big Brown (by Boundary, as opposed to a son of a top sire). Even Big Brown, however, was at an advertised (not actual) $60,000 fee, in a far more favorable bloodstock market.

Right now, the most accomplished and desirable first-year stallions are standing for about $35,000 (see Blame, Quality Road, Uncle Mo). Each of these three horses is by an accomplished, fashionable sire (Arch, Elusive Quality, Indian Charlie), not something you can say about Flower Alley. I also agree with the point made by others that the fact I'll Have Another was an $11,000 yearling and $35,000 2YO is something that will weigh on breeders' minds. Regardless of what price he starts at, he'll probably be standing in the $10,000 - $20,000 range by the time his first crop are 5YOs (if he wins the Triple Crown) and likely lower than that if he fails to win the Belmont.

It will be interesting to see what Three Chimneys does with Flower Alley. He'll probably be back up to $20-25,000 (where he started) for 2013, which is a huge stretch given his production to date, and back to $7,500 by 2016. Kind of like what happened to Our Emblem after War Emblem won the Derby and Preakness.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll Have Another has a career to finish, but in today's stallion market, I have a hard time seeing him above $50,000, even if he were to win the Belmont. He might be somehat comparable to a Big Brown (by Boundary, as opposed to a son of a top sire). Even Big Brown, however, was at an advertised (not actual) $60,000 fee, in a far more favorable bloodstock market.

Right now, the most accomplished and desirable first-year stallions are standing for about $35,000 (see Blame, Quality Road, Uncle Mo). Each of these three horses is by an accomplished, fashionable sire (Arch, Elusive Quality, Indian Charlie), not something you can say about Flower Alley. I also agree with the point made by others that the fact I'll Have Another was an $11,000 yearling and $35,000 2YO is something that will weigh on breeders' minds. Regardless of what price he starts at, he'll probably be standing in the $10,000 - $20,000 range by the time his first crop are 5YOs (if he wins the Triple Crown) and likely lower than that if he fails to win the Belmont.

It will be interesting to see what Three Chimneys does with Flower Alley. He'll probably be back up to $20-25,000 (where he started) for 2013, which is a huge stretch given his production to date, and back to $7,500 by 2016. Kind of like what happened to Our Emblem after War Emblem won the Derby and Preakness.

Supposedly the price went up after the Preakness to 15k for the remainder of the 2012 season. Don't know what they will be looking for next year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

Tiznow, while a Calbred, was not lowly bred. His sire, to this day, was one of the most awesomely fast horses I've ever seen. I would probably put Cee's Tizzy in the top 10-20 most talented racehorses (on dirt) that I've ever seen.

His dam was pretty good too. In fact, the year before Tiznow won the BCC for the first time, his full brother was second in the BCC in what was one of the most unlikely BC wins I've ever seen, by Cat Thief. This same horse also beat a future Kentucky Derby winner early in his 3yo season.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

I dont think there is any chance that he gets to those numbers. $60 million for Fu Peg was crazy but you have to take into consideration that he was going to be a full time dual hemispehere stallion right from the start. I have a hard time believing that there will be much demand for IHA in Australia based on the pedigree.

Even if he were to get 150 mares a year at 75k for 3 years (which I dont think is extremely likely) still only brings in $33 million in stud fees.