I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

Here are all the ungelded males with 10 or more Grade 1 wins:

Spectacular Bid - 14 Grade 1 wins
Affirmed - 14 Grade 1 wins
Cigar - 11 Grade 1 wins
Skip Away - 10 Grade 1 wins

Spectacular Bid was syndicated for a then-record $22 million. Skip Away was syndicated for $18. Affirmed was syndicated for $14.4 million. Cigar was reportedly going to be syndicated for a record $75 million by Coolmore.

Skip Away and Spectacular Bid sired a bunch of complete goats. Cigar shot blanks. The breeding shed was the only place where Affirmed couldn't compete with Alydar.

[Calzone Lord]

The dam of Spectacular Bid was a fast sprinter on the No. Cal fair circuit.

The dam of Cigar was a 0-for-7 maiden.

The dam of Affirmed was 23-5-2-3 and made 21K in earnings.

The dam of Skip Away was 37-5-1-6 and made 66K

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

They both have good breeding and black type...and many still think bode is the better horse. Just like some thought alydar was better, or easy goer. Of course alydar won the battle of the barn, easy goer on the other hand didnt.

[PeteMugg]

While Bode and CC may prove to better sires, those with deep pockets won't let the first Triple Crown winner in thirty plus years go cheap. I'm sure they will be willing to gamble that IHA could be the real deal off the track, as well.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

In my years of following this stuff, I've noticed that there is one thing than can offset a weak pedigree when it comes to making a stallion.

That would be high speed with a great turn of foot. Accompanied by the ability to be really good at a young age. This could easily explain low-bred horses like Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, Slew, etc. becoming top level stallions.

Skip Away really didn't show blazing speed until later in his career. I think the only horse I was badly off on when assessing his stallion potential was Gentlemen.

Barbaro too I guess, but that's different. I thought he was going to be the next Seattle Slew or AP Indy as a sire, when I saw him as a 2yo.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I realize that. But winning the Norfolk Stakes for one and the Arkansas Derby for the other most likely is not going to get them a higher stud fee than IHA at this point.

Barring premature retirements, I bet Bode will have a higher stud fee. Especially in five years.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Danzig

I just figure the novelty of the situation will drive up demand. I also think that flower alley didnt get off to a great start because the last few years havent been kind to many of the new studs, with people turning to tried and true successes to spend their money. I think fa has upside. And i feel that since its been so long without a tc winner, that when one appears, itll be huge.
Smarty jones got a huge deal, and didnt manage to win...i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.

This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.

[Cannon Shell]

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

[MLC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

That was a debate in the year that Affirmed won. Seattle Slew bested him in the Woodward, I think. Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which was won by Exceller. I remember reading Affirmed's owner or trainer remarks; something to the effect that Affirmed already earned Horse of the Year because of the Triple Crown. He had already raced at Saratoga and was there for the dances in the fall, against older top level horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

Omaha was the only horse to win the Triple Crown and not be voted or awarded Horse of the Year.

However, Discovery (the horse voted Horse of the Year over Omaha) was incredible as a 4-year-old and had probably the greatest four month stretch in American horse racing history.

Discovery was 13-11-1-1 over the 4 month stretch and destroyed Omaha despite carrying 9lbs more.

In his two defeats...

* he was 2nd by 1.5 lengths to 4-year-old Top Row at 9.5fs but carried 29lbs more (139lbs VS 110lbs) -- Top Row was a 12-time stakes winning male who made over 200K in the 1930's and won top races like the Santa Anita Handicap.

It's an impossibility for any horse to give 29lbs away to an elite older 4-year-old colt going 9.5 furlongs.

* in his other defeat -- he was beaten a neck by Top Row in the Mass Cap. This time, Top Row only had a 22lbs weight break. Whopper nosed him out for 2nd and got a 30lbs weight break from Discovery. Whopper was an 11-time stakes winning male who was 2nd in the Met Mile.

In the Bloodhorse Top 100 horses of the 20th century -- Discovery was voted the #37 best horse. War Admiral was voted the #13 best horse. However, they both raced at around the same time --- and it was documented that serious handicappers would have laughed at anyone who considered War Admiral or Seabusicut to be better horses than Discovery.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.

i think so too.
i just believe out of the gate when they all hit the shed, that iha will have the highest fee-if he should win the tc. if he wins that, he's pretty much a lock to win horse of the year as well. when you look at deals for lesser bred horses over the years who came oh so close, you can't help but think of what will be if one wins it all.
in the long run, you'd think a better bred horse would be the better sire-but as i've said all along, there are no guarantees.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

i think so....look at affirmeds year for a good idea of how it would go down. and there are no seattle slew's in the older group this year.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so.

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

you are most likely correct. but my only point all along has been that the novelty of being a tc winner will drive demand, and his fee. i almost hope he'll win the thing just to see what happens with all that. i remember all the craziness accompanying smarty jones in the weeks after winning the preakness. i'm thinking his deal was around 30 mill or so...can only imagine if iha manages to win the belmont. and isn't he undefeated this year? well, for now...

[pmayjr]

If IHA wins the TC-
What people should think:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

What people will think:

Originally Posted by Danzig

you are most likely correct. but my only point all along has been that the novelty of being a tc winner will drive demand, and his fee. i almost hope he'll win the thing just to see what happens with all that. i remember all the craziness accompanying smarty jones in the weeks after winning the preakness. i'm thinking his deal was around 30 mill or so...can only imagine if iha manages to win the belmont. and isn't he undefeated this year? well, for now...

Only thing i'll add- the h2h matchups between CC, IHA, and Bodemeister are the reason I actually hit the Derby exacta (but win $ on CC). Is CC digressing, IHA improving? I think CC will wake up on turf or synthetic, but your guys' theory for how 2 months ago they were noses apart and now they're 10 lengths apart?

[Calzone Lord]

Here was the I'll Have Another VS Creative Cause match-up at 6.5 furlongs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZrE2QKdl0

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

The only scenario that denies IHA from winning HOY this year is Paynter beating him in the Belmont, Paynter beating IHA maybe another time in Socal or a race like the Travers/Haskell, and then Paynter winning the BCC.

He's already got three grade one wins this year, which by todays standards is nearly miraculous.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

If IHA wins the TC-
What people should think:


What people will think:


Only thing i'll add- the h2h matchups between CC, IHA, and Bodemeister are the reason I actually hit the Derby exacta (but win $ on CC). Is CC digressing, IHA improving? I think CC will wake up on turf or synthetic, but your guys' theory for how 2 months ago they were noses apart and now they're 10 lengths apart?

Perhaps a combination of thungs....iha maturing, increasing distances, running styles, cc on a less than ideal (for him) surface?

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The only scenario that denies IHA from winning HOY this year is Paynter beating him in the Belmont, Paynter beating IHA maybe another time in Socal or a race like the Travers/Haskell, and then Paynter winning the BCC.

He's already got three grade one wins this year, which by todays standards is nearly miraculous.

Are you insinuating that an N1X allowance winner who trounced an over-matched field is going to win the Belmont and continue to run the table the rest of the year?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Are you insinuating that an N1X allowance winner who trounced an over-matched field is going to win the Belmont and continue to run the table the rest of the year?

No, unless that happens, then yes.

I was just throwing out the only scenario I can come up with that has greater than a 1% chance of happening. That is for IHA not getting HOY.