I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Impeccable breeding can get you a plugged nickel. On trck brilliance can get you a smarty jones.

Yes -- which is why horses like Bodemeister and Creative Cause should have the edge as stallion prospects -- because they have two VS one.

It's not as extreme as say Bernardini VS Invasor ... but it seems clear-cut to me.

The question is will a Triple Crown label negate that. The breeding market is a good deal fashion and snake-oil.

[Danzig]

Theres always a chance he could be a huge sire like seattle slew turned out to be.
I think a huge part of his potential success in the shed will depend on who cuts the stud deal and has the right mares to support him.

Or he could end up in oklahoma.

I just figure that if he wins the belmont, hell get a huge deal and the biggest stud fees of the crop the first couple years. After all, i dont think smarty was the best bred of that crop, but look how things went down when stud deals were being made.

As for long term success, its a crapshoot for any of them.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

I just figure that if he wins the belmont, hell get a huge deal and the biggest stud fees of the crop the first couple years.

That would shock me -- and I was giggling at it when I first heard it ... but it seems to be like an almost universal opinion on boards. So, maybe I'm dead wrong.

[Danzig]

I just figure the novelty of the situation will drive up demand. I also think that flower alley didnt get off to a great start because the last few years havent been kind to many of the new studs, with people turning to tried and true successes to spend their money. I think fa has upside. And i feel that since its been so long without a tc winner, that when one appears, itll be huge.
Smarty jones got a huge deal, and didnt manage to win...i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.

If only he does and gets bred to both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra... that would be swell.

In the old days -- the DRF would have big features on highly anticipated new sires.






Fortunately --- they had a fearless and kind of Dickish columnist named Salvator to write stuff like this in them...

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Danzig

I just figure the novelty of the situation will drive up demand. I also think that flower alley didnt get off to a great start because the last few years havent been kind to many of the new studs, with people turning to tried and true successes to spend their money. I think fa has upside. And i feel that since its been so long without a tc winner, that when one appears, itll be huge.
Smarty jones got a huge deal, and didnt manage to win...i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.

This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.

[Cannon Shell]

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

[MLC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

That was a debate in the year that Affirmed won. Seattle Slew bested him in the Woodward, I think. Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which was won by Exceller. I remember reading Affirmed's owner or trainer remarks; something to the effect that Affirmed already earned Horse of the Year because of the Triple Crown. He had already raced at Saratoga and was there for the dances in the fall, against older top level horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

Omaha was the only horse to win the Triple Crown and not be voted or awarded Horse of the Year.

However, Discovery (the horse voted Horse of the Year over Omaha) was incredible as a 4-year-old and had probably the greatest four month stretch in American horse racing history.

Discovery was 13-11-1-1 over the 4 month stretch and destroyed Omaha despite carrying 9lbs more.

In his two defeats...

* he was 2nd by 1.5 lengths to 4-year-old Top Row at 9.5fs but carried 29lbs more (139lbs VS 110lbs) -- Top Row was a 12-time stakes winning male who made over 200K in the 1930's and won top races like the Santa Anita Handicap.

It's an impossibility for any horse to give 29lbs away to an elite older 4-year-old colt going 9.5 furlongs.

* in his other defeat -- he was beaten a neck by Top Row in the Mass Cap. This time, Top Row only had a 22lbs weight break. Whopper nosed him out for 2nd and got a 30lbs weight break from Discovery. Whopper was an 11-time stakes winning male who was 2nd in the Met Mile.

In the Bloodhorse Top 100 horses of the 20th century -- Discovery was voted the #37 best horse. War Admiral was voted the #13 best horse. However, they both raced at around the same time --- and it was documented that serious handicappers would have laughed at anyone who considered War Admiral or Seabusicut to be better horses than Discovery.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

i think so....look at affirmeds year for a good idea of how it would go down. and there are no seattle slew's in the older group this year.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so.

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

The only scenario that denies IHA from winning HOY this year is Paynter beating him in the Belmont, Paynter beating IHA maybe another time in Socal or a race like the Travers/Haskell, and then Paynter winning the BCC.

He's already got three grade one wins this year, which by todays standards is nearly miraculous.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.

i think so too.
i just believe out of the gate when they all hit the shed, that iha will have the highest fee-if he should win the tc. if he wins that, he's pretty much a lock to win horse of the year as well. when you look at deals for lesser bred horses over the years who came oh so close, you can't help but think of what will be if one wins it all.
in the long run, you'd think a better bred horse would be the better sire-but as i've said all along, there are no guarantees.