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Old 05-07-2012, 05:19 PM
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tiggerv tiggerv is offline
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Union Rags had 9F to recover and only needed a 102 Beyer to win with plenty of pace in front of him. As far as the Belmont, Dixie Union doesn't exactly scream 12F to me.
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Old 05-07-2012, 05:40 PM
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Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiggerv View Post
Union Rags had 9F to recover and only needed a 102 Beyer to win with plenty of pace in front of him. As far as the Belmont, Dixie Union doesn't exactly scream 12F to me.
Yeah. People forget that Giacomo got sawed off at the start and had to deal with a lot of early bumping in the Kentucky Derby the year that he won.

Bird Town's romping win at 18/1 was a better example because she actually had a lot of speed and would have been very forward with a clean start and no trouble...

However, Giacomo get sawed off at the start and Smith needing to grab him only assured that he would be further back.

I don't believe Mine That Bird had any early trouble at all. He just flat out walked through the early stages.
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Old 05-07-2012, 05:45 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Union Rags has collected a mountain of excuses in his last two races. However, I think some of the trouble he ran into in the Derby is being a little underrated on here.

After being pinched back at the start he was steadied in the first quarter-mile, already significantly farther back than he should have been. As the horses outside of him began to launch their bids he was in neutral, then ran right into Daddy Long Legs as he stopped and plummeted through the field.

Now, he is likely to be overbet again wherever he surfaces next. However, he has all of the elements of a horse that a trip handicapper will look for on a regular basis, as he has been given little to no chance by both his rider and the things that have happened within the context of his last two races.

Who knows what we'll happen in the next four weeks, but the likelihood that he is the longest price he has ever been in his career in the Belmont is extremely high, and he MAY have the tactical speed to work out the type of trip that is rewarded in that race.
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Old 05-07-2012, 07:27 PM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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I'm just seeing Union Rags, who at the end of the day is still sitting on Beyers in the mid-90's. Thorograph had him a lot faster than Beyer last year, but by either measure he isn't showing development this year.

I get the Looking at Lucky comparison, however, he overcame trouble to win the Rebel signaling that he was improving. Then he catches the rail in the slop at KY, and ended up with a trip that made Rags trip look like a stroll in the pasture. I guess we'll know more from Rags in a few weeks, but I'm not seeing it.
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Old 05-07-2012, 07:45 PM
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when Liason breaking from the 20 hole finishes ahead of UR.....whether you wanna talk trip or not, his lack of tactical speed and his uncanny ability to find trouble is doing him in....we'll see if a jock change can help but I just don't think this horse is fast or athletic enough to get in the clear and do any kind of running
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