With 12 days to go who...

[Calzone Lord]

Ferdinand is the last horse to win from post #1 in 1986. Risen Star the last horse to finish in the top 3 from a rail draw in 1988. Cryptoclearance was 4th from post #1 in '87.

[HaloWishingwell]

Using....All
Tossing....none

Post positions,reports, weather and etc. Just too much to come before dumping anyone.

For example a horse on the bubble like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy would go way up my list if it rains.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ferdinand is the last horse to win from post #1 in 1986. Risen Star the last horse to finish in the top 3 from a rail draw in 1988. Cryptoclearance was 4th from post #1 in '87.

And those 3 were all a whole lotta horse.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those 3 were all a whole lotta horse.

and Risen Star got a tour of Kentucky to get around horses from the inside.

[tywizard]

For the past five derby winners the derby was third off a layoff. This seems to be a rather strong recent trend. As a result, I'm considering narrowing my analysis to the following horses (same draw, workout, etc disclaimer as everyone else) for the win position and multis:

Union Rags
Dullahan
Gemologist
Sabercat
Daddy Nose Best
Trinniberg
Done Talking

From this list Trinniberg and Done Talking just don't seem to fit - however both will have incredible value.

I'm hoping the value is still there with Daddy Nose Best. His progression as a 3 year old and more likely when switching to dirt, along with his strong foundation and running style make him my early pick.

The only tosses so far are Daddy Long Legs, Alpha and Prospective.

[justindew]

Using: Union Rags, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best

Tossing: Daddy Long Legs, Dullahan, Hansen, Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Alpha, Take Charge Indy

All others are TBD