With 12 days to go who...

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

What about post #1 though?

Since 1990...

Archarchrach 15th

lookin at lucky 6th

West Side Bernie 9th

Cool Coal Man 15th

Sedgefield 5th

Jazil 4th

Sort It Out 17th

Limestone 4th

Supah Blitz 13th

Johannesburg 8th

Songandaprayer 13th

Anees 13th

Adonis 17th

Nationalore 9th

Crypto Star 5th

Blow Out 7th

Dazzling Falls 13th

Soul of the Matter 5th

Storm Tower 16th

Al Sabin 6th

Fly So Free 5th

Dr. Bobby A 12th


A lot of hopeless horses...though two contenders the last two years encountered a lot of trouble from rail draws.

[Calzone Lord]

Ferdinand is the last horse to win from post #1 in 1986. Risen Star the last horse to finish in the top 3 from a rail draw in 1988. Cryptoclearance was 4th from post #1 in '87.

[HaloWishingwell]

Using....All
Tossing....none

Post positions,reports, weather and etc. Just too much to come before dumping anyone.

For example a horse on the bubble like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy would go way up my list if it rains.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ferdinand is the last horse to win from post #1 in 1986. Risen Star the last horse to finish in the top 3 from a rail draw in 1988. Cryptoclearance was 4th from post #1 in '87.

And those 3 were all a whole lotta horse.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those 3 were all a whole lotta horse.

and Risen Star got a tour of Kentucky to get around horses from the inside.

[tywizard]

For the past five derby winners the derby was third off a layoff. This seems to be a rather strong recent trend. As a result, I'm considering narrowing my analysis to the following horses (same draw, workout, etc disclaimer as everyone else) for the win position and multis:

Union Rags
Dullahan
Gemologist
Sabercat
Daddy Nose Best
Trinniberg
Done Talking

From this list Trinniberg and Done Talking just don't seem to fit - however both will have incredible value.

I'm hoping the value is still there with Daddy Nose Best. His progression as a 3 year old and more likely when switching to dirt, along with his strong foundation and running style make him my early pick.

The only tosses so far are Daddy Long Legs, Alpha and Prospective.

[justindew]

Using: Union Rags, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best

Tossing: Daddy Long Legs, Dullahan, Hansen, Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Alpha, Take Charge Indy

All others are TBD

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Since 1990...

Archarchrach 15th

lookin at lucky 6th


A lot of hopeless horses...though two contenders the last two years encountered a lot of trouble from rail draws.

My last two derby picks, one thrown over the fence and came all the way back for 6th, the other broke something in the race and never ran again. I will not make a strong opinion anywhere before the draw this year lest my horse pull the 1 again.

[Gate Dancer]

I'll use the same disclaimers that most people have cited such as: weather, workouts, pp draw, etc..............but I am leaning towards these 4 for the win bet:

Creative Cause
I'll Have Another
Daddy Nose Best
Gemologist

(Bubble Horses)
Union Rags
Dullahan
Rousing Sermon (ridiculous I know, just think there's upside potential)

Nothing shocking here but I believe the Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Oaks/Derby Double and Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3 is where I'll be spending my time rather than the vertical wagers in the Derby.