Wise Dan

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I don't have the specific parallel time charts that Beyer uses for Keeneland --so I don't know if he does anything special with 9f races VS 8.5f races at KEE -- but the Wise Dan race does appears to be "cut loose" with the 8.5 furlong race run 30 minutes later based on how he has handled this distance relationship in the past.

Nine points was added to the Wise Dan race for some reason. A 108 would have fit the Beyer variant based on the Beyer relationship between 8.5f and 9f races at Keeneland in the other days I've looked at.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

Obviously 117 is open lengths faster than any Beyer ever published in synthetic route racing ... it's a very historical figure that will stand the test of time. However, it was earned over an extremely speed biased race track and it appears to have been cut loose with 9 points added to it.