Wise Dan

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not entering the discussion, mostly because I have no idea about figures at Keeneland, but as I said on another board, I spoke to Beyer and he stands behind the number. He used the same variant for the entire card, save projecting the 3rd race due to the slow pace and faster final fractions, and felt that since he hadn't been splitting sprint and route variants during the meet, there seemed no reason to do it for this day.

I'm just the messenger.

I'm far from an authority on the Beyer process for his figs at Keeneland as well.

Obviously, horses who made the lead ran impossibly well all day from a Beyer figure standpoint and a 117 for Wise Dan isn't any more eye-popping than the Beyer figure every pacesetter on that card ran relative to prior ability.

However...looking at the last two routes this day VS Blue Grass Stakes day... what I'm seeing is not adding up.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

A day like that I'm just hunting for a few speeds to play against -- and a few closers who also didn't get pace and have a right to improve next time. But man, 117 in a synthetic route will really stand the test of time if he sticks by it.