2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

[pmayjr]

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

Probably because he is full of BS.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

[Sightseek]

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

[slotdirt]

At least Conveyance had run respectably going two turns (one of which was a second place to Endorsement, my 2010 early Derby pick was on the shelf for 20 months following the 2010 Sunland Derby).

[HaloWishingwell]

Trinniberg won't be the worst horse ever to enter into The Derby. The most bizarre trail? Most likely. Dreaming owners have done this before with horses that were terrible at one or two turns and it won't be the last time. These owners have no guarantee they will ever have an opportunity again and decide why the hell not. What doesn't help matters also is when you have recent longshots like Giacomo ,Mine That Bird and a non dirt winner like Animal Kingdom winning at big odds which feeds into that dream.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

[i]Trinniberg won't be the worst horse ever to enter into The Derby. The most bizarre trail? Most likely. Dreaming owners have done this before with horses that were terrible at one or two turns and it won't be the last time. These owners have no guarantee they will ever have an opportunity again and decide why the hell not.

The rumors I've been hearing is that Trinniberg was just sold for over a million dollars ... Parboo to keep a percentage and stay on as trainer.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

and he'll counter about the recent longshots that won and that we're all trying this distance for the first time. Anytihng to justify his decision. Honestly I cant walk in their shoes but if I was a small time owner I would be tempted to try as well since there is no guarantee of this opportunity again.

[Calzone Lord]

He's naturally way faster than Bodemeister and Hansen ... not even close. Elite six furlong sprint speed VS route speed.

If the rumors I'm hearing (off the record from a jock agent) are true -- he's probably only running because a strong majority interest in him was just sold.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He's naturally way faster than Bodemeister and Hansen ... not even close. Elite six furlong sprint speed VS route speed.

If the rumors I'm hearing (off the record from a jock agent) are true -- he's probably only running because a strong majority interest in him was just sold.

Any chance he was bought by Godolphin to use as a rabbit for Alpha?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it.

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

I'm just looking for reasons to try to justify and that was the most logical one I could come up with was the Bay Shore was relaxed...even with the headwind it was still a half second slower than the Carter first half. For me, them talking Preakness was just as crazy and if you're gonna do the crazy the Derby is only .5 furlongs longer. I just don't think his entry is as big a deal as many are making it out to be. If they're serious they'll try to harness him somewhat and he's just another horse with speed.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

I don't understand this comment. If you dont' like what I stated explain why....at least Calzone and danzig were able to do that. He ran a slower pace in the Bay Shore than his previous races, yeah, that's really crazy stuff there I said...stating fact. That's insane stuff stating fact like that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

i think it makes a lot of difference. if i had a horse that i thought might go for 10f, i wouldn't have him only run up to 7f beforehand, and no further. i wouldn't only have run him in one turn racing with his first around two turns in a field with 19 other horses and him going 3 extra furlongs at the same time. typically you would work towards that with longer racing beforehand, wouldn't you?
if they only planned to go a mile at most, and now, two weeks out, he's going to try for another quarter-well, just how much training would have been needed to put more bottom into a horse that they can't manage now? he's got two weeks to prepare a horse to do a lot more than he's ever been prepared to do. and you're right, it's not so much where-but i certainly feel that 'when' has a lot to do with it.


in your later post, you suggested they would try to harness him somewhat. that would be a bigger mistake than running him in the derby. to try to take him out off his game...this horse will have no chance if they try to mess with his style. i saw where he worked 5f in 1:02, that tells me they're trying to get some speed out of him. huge mistake. it's too late to try to make a 10f silk purse out of what's a sprinting sow's ear. they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.