2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The article on BH taps into the mindset a bit. It's the Derby... hard to say no when you have a shot. He knows he has a fast sprinter, and he's going to try and see how far he goes.

I think I would have a hard time passing the race too.

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

Right, I totally agree. Unfortunately, every year there are horses in the race where the connections don't have the best interest of the horse in mind. But like you said, it's easy for us to play Monday QB when we don't own the horse.

[pmayjr]

It's because it's the one race where every owner feels if they got a chance to run in it, they do. I'd like to think that most owners when presented with other opportunities would come to their senses and not subject their horses to this race when they don't have a chance in hell. But this race makes everyone think crazy. And the way the race has been wide-open in recent years with longshots winning, its tough to blame them for having a shred of hope. I'm pretty sure this year will finally buck that trend, but tough to blame any owner for not trying. As I said, hopefully his connections rest him until July if he gets his butt kicked.

But seriously DaHoss, of course you're right. I'm trying to think- beside Lost in the Fog off the top of my head, what 3 year-old contender that probably would've had enough graded money was taken off the trail because he wasn't good enough or probably couldn't go the distance? I mean taken off for reasons beside injury?

[pmayjr]

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentuck...possible-derby

Official article on Isn't he Clever. Owner J. Kirk Robison quoted as saying- “The Derby is still under consideration, but I’ve always said I would never enter the Derby if I didn’t think the horse would be competitive.”

But I don't think you transfer him to Asmussen and base him at Churchill to not run him if you got a chance. If there are no defections, he'll probably show up in the Preakness.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

But seriously DaHoss, of course you're right. I'm trying to think- beside Lost in the Fog off the top of my head, what 3 year-old contender that probably would've had enough graded money was taken off the trail because he wasn't good enough or probably couldn't go the distance? I mean taken off for reasons beside injury?

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

Houston set the pace in 89, he was the last to run. Gulch in 87, Zabaleta pressed Groovy into last place in 86, Proud Appeal in 81.
Bold Forbes,Secretariat and Damascus (3rd as the favorite) were the most successful.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

[pmayjr]

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

Probably because he is full of BS.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

[Sightseek]

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

[slotdirt]

At least Conveyance had run respectably going two turns (one of which was a second place to Endorsement, my 2010 early Derby pick was on the shelf for 20 months following the 2010 Sunland Derby).

[HaloWishingwell]

Trinniberg won't be the worst horse ever to enter into The Derby. The most bizarre trail? Most likely. Dreaming owners have done this before with horses that were terrible at one or two turns and it won't be the last time. These owners have no guarantee they will ever have an opportunity again and decide why the hell not. What doesn't help matters also is when you have recent longshots like Giacomo ,Mine That Bird and a non dirt winner like Animal Kingdom winning at big odds which feeds into that dream.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

[i]Trinniberg won't be the worst horse ever to enter into The Derby. The most bizarre trail? Most likely. Dreaming owners have done this before with horses that were terrible at one or two turns and it won't be the last time. These owners have no guarantee they will ever have an opportunity again and decide why the hell not.

The rumors I've been hearing is that Trinniberg was just sold for over a million dollars ... Parboo to keep a percentage and stay on as trainer.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

and he'll counter about the recent longshots that won and that we're all trying this distance for the first time. Anytihng to justify his decision. Honestly I cant walk in their shoes but if I was a small time owner I would be tempted to try as well since there is no guarantee of this opportunity again.

[Calzone Lord]

He's naturally way faster than Bodemeister and Hansen ... not even close. Elite six furlong sprint speed VS route speed.

If the rumors I'm hearing (off the record from a jock agent) are true -- he's probably only running because a strong majority interest in him was just sold.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He's naturally way faster than Bodemeister and Hansen ... not even close. Elite six furlong sprint speed VS route speed.

If the rumors I'm hearing (off the record from a jock agent) are true -- he's probably only running because a strong majority interest in him was just sold.

Any chance he was bought by Godolphin to use as a rabbit for Alpha?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it.

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.