Derby Odds

[Thunder Gulch]

I think Hansen and Alpha go upwards of 15-1 or more, especially Alpha.
Hansen was 26-1 in Pool 1after losing his season debut, and that was when there was nobody else to feel good about except the field. The field went at 7-2, but Bodemeister now fills that spot - maybe not 7-2, but certainly taking a lot of money.

Alpha is off the radar and was beaten by Gemologist. Now there are a half dozen more with more apparent momentum.

Borel is probably the only jock that could move the needle in this one race, so the Dominguez decision makes no impact on the big pool.

[Mike]

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Didn't even intend the heart puns.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Plus they just love Baffert anyway.

[richard]

I'll go with running style and pedigree. Also throw in a quick pick or 2.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Plus they just love Baffert anyway.

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.

[freddymo]

Does anyone know when Jillacious is going to run.. The filly is named for Baffert's wife and they expect her to be incredibly fast like her namesake.. PG? Anyone?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.

[Travis Stone]

The impact of the stories and the Borels of the world etc. is significant.

Last year, Pants on Fire (Rosie) was the second favorite in the Derby at odds of 8-1, yet he was the 10th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Twice the Appeal (Borel) was the world's biggest underlay at 12-1 in the Derby, but was the 14th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Watch Me Go was just 34-1, one tick lower than Comma to the Top, despite the double to Watch Me Go paying $2,068 vs. $883 for Comma.

...and there are plenty more examples going back. With so much "fun money" in the win pool, it's never a true gauge of how the horseplayer public is playing the race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

wonder what horses are named after bob's other kids. they never seem to get mention...

[Seattleallstar]

im going with the Billionaire Arabs in Blue with Alpha. Just to think after all the billions spent in trying to win the Kentucky Derby, one of their best shots is a homebred, in which they bred the sire who notched them their first TC race who was also a homebred. I dont think we count Sheik Hamdan's TC wins since they are totally seperate from Sheik Mo and the Godolphin/Darley Operation.

[tywizard]

Is there a site that has a collection of the pps for the past 20 or so Derbys?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Is there a site that has a collection of the pps for the past 20 or so Derbys?

http://test.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/134.html
There's a handful on the bottom right corner of the page.

type the year-kentucky-derby-pps.pdf into a google search

[analyizethis]

Since 2003 172 horses have started in the Derby. 8 of those have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less. In 2003, 2006 and 2011 5 runners have been less than 10 - 1. (In the other years either 3 or 4 have been). In 2003 Empire Maker was 2.5 - 1 and the other four were between 5 and 10 - 1. In the other two years all 5 were between 5 and 10-1.

Given that history I'm going to say that we will have 5 between 5 and 10 - 1 again this year. I would say that those five will be Bodemeister, Gemologist, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another and Union Rags. At that point (at a 16% takeout) between 45% and 50% of the pool has been used up. The next group will be Take Charge Indy, Hansen, Dullahan, Alpha and another runner who trains well. They will be between 10 - 1 and 20 -1 and consume a portion of the pool to get you do about 75%. The rest will, of course on average have 2.5% of the pool bet on them for an average price of about
33 - 1. One of the changes that has happened in Kentucky Derby betting over the years is the compactness of the odds in this final strata and they will probably range from 20 - 1 to 40 - 1.

By the way, when runners have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less they have performed very well finishing in thge money 75% of the time and with an overall win ROI of 1.80 on a dollar.