Derby Odds

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Plus they just love Baffert anyway.

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.

[freddymo]

Does anyone know when Jillacious is going to run.. The filly is named for Baffert's wife and they expect her to be incredibly fast like her namesake.. PG? Anyone?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.

[Travis Stone]

The impact of the stories and the Borels of the world etc. is significant.

Last year, Pants on Fire (Rosie) was the second favorite in the Derby at odds of 8-1, yet he was the 10th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Twice the Appeal (Borel) was the world's biggest underlay at 12-1 in the Derby, but was the 14th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Watch Me Go was just 34-1, one tick lower than Comma to the Top, despite the double to Watch Me Go paying $2,068 vs. $883 for Comma.

...and there are plenty more examples going back. With so much "fun money" in the win pool, it's never a true gauge of how the horseplayer public is playing the race.