4/14 (OP): AK Derby (G1), OP H. (G2), Count Fleet (G3), Northern Spur

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

How well Bodemeister performs if he's 4th or 5th about 3.5 lengths off of the pace is really the question...and I think it's basically a guess-work question.

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

Not to be too anal but I would disagree here.

It depends who all else runs of course -- but he is a horse with an easy trip last race that will tower over a field on everyones figures.

Generally those type of horses certainly aren't positive expectation...but also certainly don't perform worse than the takeout. If I had to guess -- these type horses are maybe $1.80 ROI types and at such short prices that you can't make any money with them.

Obviously not wise to bet on them generically speaking... but equally unwise to go hunting them out to bet against them.