4/14 (OP): AK Derby (G1), OP H. (G2), Count Fleet (G3), Northern Spur

[Calzone Lord]

Yeah. I think Bodemeister can and will be compared with horses like Big Brown, Bellamy Road, Curlin, and Congaree.

He's similar enough to Big Brown, Curlin, and Congaree in that he's very lightly raced and in the ball park of each on ability at this point.

However, all three of them eventually proved they didn't need the lead to run peak efforts.

Bellamy Road wasn't able to prove that in the one chance he got chasing a 21-flat type sprinter like Spanish Chestnut around while hung up wide.

Curlin got clogged up behind a lot of traffic in the Ky Derby, Big Brown destroyed a very weak field because he was able to rate, and Congaree was a great 3rd chasing a 22 and change pace with Point Given breathing down his neck and then stopping.

How well Bodemeister performs if he's 4th or 5th about 3.5 lengths off of the pace is really the question...and I think it's basically a guess-work question.

[Rudeboyelvis]

He ran a faster Ark Derby than Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, and Curlin. From the outside, on the lead at every point of call. That's a freak of nature right there.

[Calzone Lord]

If I was in the position of Bodemeister's owner... I would get Bisnath Parboo on the phone right now and encourage him not to run Trinniberg (who has enough Graded earnings) and give Parboo a decent sprinter or two to train and have him pick something fast out of OBS April for him to train.

Parboo is a freaking awesome sprint trainer and Bodemeister probably has zero chance in the Derby if Trinniberg runs. I suppose if you owned Dullahan or any other closer or plodder you could always try the opposite and encourage him to run and "get seen" or whatever.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

He ran a faster Ark Derby than Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, and Curlin. From the outside, on the lead at every point of call. That's a freak of nature right there.

Just watched. Very impressive.

[tector]

Bodemeister got a 105 BSF.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

Bodemeister got a 105 BSF.

Oaklawn Park Handicap was run 30 minutes earlier and went 12 points slower and got a 100 Beyer.

Seven points to make both figures appear as safe as possible...I think it's safe to assume this figure would have been in the 110-to-112 range if it wasn't a big event day.

Of the 11 runners in the Ark Derby -- 4 went forward off of their last race and 7 went backwards...and of the 4 who went forward three of them were deep closing plodders who benefited from the setup and the other was the loose lead winner.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

How well Bodemeister performs if he's 4th or 5th about 3.5 lengths off of the pace is really the question...and I think it's basically a guess-work question.

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think over the long run betting against Bodemeister-type horses is positive expectation for that reason... there's some guess work. It's hard to pair-up a big effort where you were loose on the lead with no opposition... much less in the Derby. Lots of talent there though.

Not to be too anal but I would disagree here.

It depends who all else runs of course -- but he is a horse with an easy trip last race that will tower over a field on everyones figures.

Generally those type of horses certainly aren't positive expectation...but also certainly don't perform worse than the takeout. If I had to guess -- these type horses are maybe $1.80 ROI types and at such short prices that you can't make any money with them.

Obviously not wise to bet on them generically speaking... but equally unwise to go hunting them out to bet against them.